Release of Major Iowa Poll Scrapped After Pete Buttigieg's Name 'Left Off Survey'

By Adam Gabbatt, Guardian UK

02 February 20

Influential ‘gold standard’ of polls pulled ahead of caucuses on Monday after reported complaint from Buttigieg campaign

he Des Moines Register and CNN canceled the release of one of the most influential polls of the Democratic primary on Saturday night, after candidate Pete Buttigieg reportedly complained that his name had been left off at least one survey.

CNN had dedicated an hour-long show to the poll, which was to be released in conjunction with the Des Moines Register and Mediacom. The survey was withheld minutes before it was due to be released, after Buttigieg’s campaign contacted Selzer and Co, which conducted the poll.

The New York Times, citing a Buttigieg campaign aide, said a supporter of the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, was called by the pollster and asked their preferred presidential candidate. A list of candidates was read out but did not include Buttigieg’s name.

Speaking to ABC’s This Week on Sunday, Buttigieg said he did not “completely” understand what had happened and added: “My understanding is that there was an issue, it was raised and they decided to respond by withdrawing the release of the poll.

“I do think at a moment like this where you got a president routinely attacking the press, it’s worth remembering the integrity and the seriousness with which reporters and press take the work that they do and wanting to make absolutely sure that it’s accurate and strong.”

The survey, the final Register poll before the caucus on Monday, has been called “the most consequential poll in politics”, given the timing of its release and the impact it can have. The Register has published a poll just before the caucuses for 76 years. The poll has predicted the correct winner in 10 out of the past 12 presidential primary races.

In a statement, the Des Moines Register said it would not release the poll “as planned”. It did not say whether the poll would be released in the coming days.

“Nothing is more important to the Register and its polling partners than the integrity of the Iowa poll,” the Register said.

“Today, a respondent raised an issue with the way the survey was administered, which could have compromised the results of the poll. It appears a candidate’s name was omitted in at least one interview in which the respondent was asked to name their preferred candidate.”

CNN political director David Chalian said the network had been contacted about a potential error in the poll. Chalian said CNN and the Des Moines Register “weren’t able to determine exactly what happened” and that they had decided not to release the poll “out of an abundance of caution”.

Selzer and Co and the Buttigieg campaign did not immediately respond to Guardian requests for comment.

Vermont senator and 2016 presidential candidate Bernie Sanders led the previous Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll, released on 10 January, by three points. Fellow progressive Elizabeth Warren was second, with 17% of the vote, with Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, on 16% and former vice-president Joe Biden winning 15%.

Iowa dispenses just 41 delegates to the Democratic National Convention, a fraction of the 1,991 candidates need to win the nomination. As the first to chose its preferred nominee, however, the state has outsized importance.

Sanders held a “caucus concert” with the band Vampire Weekend in Cedar Rapids on Saturday night, while across the city Buttigieg rallied supporters at a hotel. Warren and Biden each held three events on Saturday, with all the candidates planning last-gasp events across Sunday and Monday.

A win in Iowa can help a candidate seem electable – to make it seem like the tide is in their favor – and convince other voters in the later states. Barack Obama was trailing Hillary Clinton by more than 20 points in national polls as Iowa voted in 2008, but after his surprise victory he quickly caught up and eventually won the nomination.

On NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday, Buttigieg was asked if he would “reconsider his candidacy” if he did not make the top three.

“I’ll let others set the goalposts,” he said. “But, look, let’s face it. I need to have a good finish here in Iowa. We know it, and we’re working very hard to do that.”

To ABC, he said: “I think a lot of voters across the country understand that across the candidates we share largely similar values and are focused, more than anything else, on making sure we have the nominee to defeat Donald Trump. I believe that I have the campaign best positioned to do that. The message best positioned to do that.

“But of course the first opportunity to actually prove it is to turn people out in the caucuses tomorrow evening, that’s why I’m getting in front of every caucus-goer that I can … Tomorrow is going to be a big night and it will propel us into the states ahead.”

Buttigieg also spoke to CBS’s Face the Nation, where he was asked about remarks from his advisers to reporters which suggested he was already looking ahead to “Super Tuesday”, 3 March, on which 14 states and Democrats Abroad will hold their nominating contests.

“I’m focused on Iowans’ lives,” he said, adding: “We’re counting on a good finish here in Iowa, going straight to New Hampshire and on to Nevada, South Carolina and the other states.”