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FOCUS | April National Poll: Bernie Takes Lead for Democratic Nomination
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=50584"><span class="small">Emerson Polling</span></a>   
Monday, 15 April 2019 10:36

Excerpt: "A new national Emerson poll, including 20 Democratic candidates for President, found Senator Bernie Sanders ahead of the pack with 29%, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 24%."

Bernie Sanders talks to supporters during a rally. (photo: Joshua Trujillo/Seattlepi.com)
Bernie Sanders talks to supporters during a rally. (photo: Joshua Trujillo/Seattlepi.com)


April National Poll: Bernie Takes Lead for Democratic Nomination

By Emerson Polling

15 April 19

 

new national Emerson poll, including 20 Democratic candidates for President, found Senator Bernie Sanders ahead of the pack with 29%, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 24%. They were followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9%, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Senator Kamala Harris at 8%, and Senator Elizabeth Warren at 7%. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang and former HUD secretary Julian Castro were at 3%. The poll was conducted April 11-14 of Democratic Primary voters with a subset of n=356, +/- 5.2%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, said “while still early in the nominating process, it looks like Mayor Pete is the candidate capturing voters’ imagination; the numbers had him at 0% in mid-February, 3% in March and now at 9% in April.”

Kimball also noted that “Biden has seen his support drop. In February, he led Sanders 27% to 17%, and in March the two were tied at 26%. Now, Sanders has a 5 point lead, 29% to 24%.”


If Joe Biden decides not to run, Bernie Sanders looks to be the early beneficiary, picking up 31% of Bidens’ voters. Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets 17% of the Biden vote, followed by Beto O’Rourke at 13%.

President Trump has seen his approval numbers nationally stay consistent in 2019 and is currently at 43% approval and 49% disapproval among voters (n=914, +/-3.2%), similar to last month’s numbers (43% to 50%). However, among Republican primary voters, Trump remains very popular and leads potential challenger, former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld, 85% to 15% (n=324, +/-5.4%).


In a head to head ballot test, Joe Biden appears the strongest opponent against Trump of the major Democratic candidates with a 53% to 47% advantage. This result is down 4 points from Emerson’s March poll, where Biden led Trump 55% to 45%. This general tightening is seen in the other head-to heads against other potential opponents: (n=914, +/-3.2%)

  • Biden 53%, Trump 47%

  • Sanders 51%, Trump 48%

  • O’Rourke 51%, Trump 49%

  • Harris 50%, Trump 50%

  • Buttigieg 49%, Trump 51%

  • Warren 48%, Trump 52%

Taxes

As of April 14, 2019, 73% of voters said they had filed their federal income tax returns, 17% plan to get them in on time and 4% have asked for an extension. 6% do not plan on filing returns.

36% of those who have filed their taxes say they are paying more compared to last year, with 29% saying they are paying less, and 35% saying they are paying about the same.

Of those who said they were receiving a tax return this year, 41% said they plan to use it to pay off debt, 31% plan to save it, and 13% will spend the money on enjoyment.

Campaign Issues

  • 47% of voters support building a wall on the US-Mexico Border, 45% oppose, 8% are undecided.

  • 41% of voters do not think large tech giants like Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google should be broken up, 29% think they should be broken up, and 31% are undecided.

  • 43% of voters do not support American intervention in Venezuela to overthrow the Maduro Regime, 27% do support American intervention, 31% were unsure.

  • 55% of voters do not think individuals currently incarcerated should have the right to vote, 30% believe those incarcerated should be able to vote , and 15% are undecided on this issue.

  • 65% of voters think that felons who completed their prison sentences should have the right to vote, 23% do not, and 12% are undecided.

Unlikely Voter

Voters who did not plan to vote in either party primary/caucus were asked why they were not planning on voting, 16% said lack of interest, 12% said they don’t like any of the candidates, 11% said it was too hard to vote, 6% said a lack of time, and 55% responded that it was for some other reason that they do not plan to vote in the primaries.

Caller ID

The national Emerson College poll was conducted April 11-14, 2019 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=914, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data was weighted based on a 2016 voter model of gender, age, party affiliation, region and ethnicity. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=599) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=315). Visit our website at ​www.emersonpolling.com​. 

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Last Updated on Monday, 15 April 2019 10:41
 

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-5 # Rodion Raskolnikov 2019-04-15 11:08
This is not surprising at all -- except for the low number for Warren. In another article now on RSN, Juan Cole writes this:


"I think both the Democratic leadership and the GOP are wrong, and that they are misreading 2016. Americans are tired of the forever wars, tired of plutocracy, tired of not being able to make ends meet, tired of not having affordable health insurance. That is the real message of 2016 and 2018. These issues grip them beyond the liberal, moderate and conservative labels. "

Cole is right. the real message of 2016 and 2018 is Sanders' message. I don't agree with Cole that the DNC and RNC don't know this. They do and are gearing up to knock Sanders out. But they understand the message of 2016 and 2018 perfectly. They just are against it and will do every thing to prevent Sanders or another true progressive.

That "do everything" might just mean the rehabilitation of Trump and the support for his 2020 run.
 
 
+4 # No Go 2019-04-15 13:23
The most significant part of this Emerson Polling report may well be this quote from Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling :

“while still early in the nominating process, it looks like Mayor Pete is the candidate capturing voters’ imagination; the numbers had him at 0% in mid-February, 3% in March and now at 9% in April.”

The candidate who is capturing voters' imagination is undoubtedly who we want; especially, if that candidate can bring out the 18 to 40 year old voters.

Sanders is 77 years old and Biden is 76 years old, now.
A highly intelligent, charismatic, 37 year old with a track record in the private sector, the military, and then 7 successful years in public office seems like an excellent antidote to Agent Orange.
 
 
-8 # PABLO DIABLO 2019-04-15 15:12
Biden would be another Hillary (supporting the status quo). Trump would win. Bernie is our only hope to take back "our" government. Go Bernie, GO, we need you now more than ever.
 
 
-9 # Robbee 2019-04-15 15:58
April National Poll: Bernie Takes Lead for Democratic Nomination
By Emerson Polling
15 April 19

- BERNIE! K I C K - A S S !

this takes a strong! continued! commitment from all of us!
 
 
-10 # Robbee 2019-04-15 16:11
ps - in 20 minutes i'm watching bernie's town hall on fox news! go bernie!
 
 
-11 # Trumpistheswamp 2019-04-15 17:06
Bernie and Liz should team up now, run together and pull a great publicity stunt: they should not say who is running for pres and who is running for VP. They should wait to announce that, and have it be the result of a public COIN TOSS. They could praise each other's virtues and each adore the other. The theme could be that NEVER have we had such extraordinary candidates and either way with a Jewish pres or a woman pres we could achieve SPECTACULAR outcomes, ending the rule of racism, ignorance, callousness, and pandering to billionaires.
 
 
-9 # lfeuille 2019-04-15 17:15
Good news about Bernie, though I don't quite understand why Biden continues to be a serious candidate. Is the word about the non-progressive ness of his record not getting through to voters?

This article tries to make it seem like the big news is Buttgrieg, but I think it is Bernie's taking the lead. They are pushing Buttrieg like the used to push Beto, but that fizzled pretty fast.
 
 
-12 # banichi 2019-04-18 02:37
The plethora of Democratic (and mostly corporatists with a veneer of almost-progress ivism) appears to me to be another attempt to dilute Bernie Sanders' power at the ballot box. And the Democratic Party establishment would like nothing better than to have to go to a 2nd ballot at the Democratic Convention, if no single candidate has enough votes on the first ballot to win. That would mean that the superdelegates would then come into play.

I somehow doubt that this many candidates suddenly running has any other purpose than to keep Bernie Sanders from getting the nomination.

As far as the polls go, the Dems have been rigging polls to have them come out the way they want for a long time. And other tactics to ensure that their corrupt path of corporate and big-money donors and donations continues. This was demonstrated in the 2016 primary, and ever since they lost the election. Kamala Harris, from my home state of California, was annointed at a meeting about 1-1/2 years ago that included Soros and Pelosi, where they claimed on the basis of a poll that supposedly said that Harris was more electable than Sanders, by a few percentage points. ?? Harris was almost completely unknown at that point outside of California, so that result could not have happened in any real honest poll.

This makes me doubt seriously the results of any poll reported by MSM, since the real intentions of the Dems are much less honest than they want you to believe.