'A New Cultural Era': Midterms See Firsts as Candidates Poised to Make History

By Lauren Gambino, Guardian UK

05 November 18

On Tuesday, both parties will usher in a new political era as a record number of women run in addition to Native American, Muslim, Latinos, immigrants, LGBT candidates

n Tuesday, Americans could elect as many as three black governors, including two in southern states that once were part of the Confederacy. Arizona voters will send a woman to the Senate for the first time, regardless of who wins the razor-thin race there. Colorado could elect the nation’s first openly gay male governor.

Women are running in record numbers. Native Americans, Muslims, Latinos, immigrants, millennials and LGBT candidates are poised to make history – some two or even threes times over.

“We’re on the cusp of not only a new political era but a new cultural era powered largely by the women of color who are on the ballot on Tuesday,” said Aimee Allison, president of Democracy in Color, a organization that backs voters of color.

Many of the new crop of candidates are motivated by alarm at the election of Donald Trump and propelled by a wave of liberal activism. Victories could deliver a forceful rebuke to a president who has stoked racial and cultural division.

In Georgia, Stacey Abrams, who in May became the first African American woman to win a major party nomination for governor, is locked in fiercely contested battle with Republican Brian Kemp. Ilhan Omar, a former Somali refugee and the Democratic nominee for a congressional district in Minnesota, is likely to join Rashida Tlaib, a Democratic nominee in Michigan running unopposed, as the first Muslim women in Congress. Deb Haaland, the Democratic nominee in New Mexico, is favored to win her House race and become the first Native American woman in Congress.

A number of Republicans could also make history. Tennessee and Mississippi could elect women to the Senate for the first time. John James, the underdog in the Michigan Senate race, would be the first black person to represent the state in the upper chamber. Kristi Noem would be South Dakota’s first female governor.

The diversity points to a dramatic shift in the political landscape. According to an analysis by the New York Times, the share of House, Senate and gubernatorial candidates who are white and male is at its lowest point in four elections.

US politics is changing at time when Trump and some Republicans are exploiting deep culture divisions as a campaign tactic. The result is an election that Trump has framed with some of the most charged issues in US politics: race, gender and identity.

Such tensions have reached fever pitch during the Florida governor’s race. In a debate, Ron DeSantis, a Republican running on a Trumpian platform, was asked about his decision to speak at events hosted by a conservative who has made racially inflammatory comments. DeSantis was defiant, saying he would not “bow down to the altar of political correctness”.

His Democratic opponent, Andrew Gillum, who would be the first black governor of the state, replied: “I’m not calling Mr DeSantis a racist. I’m simply saying the racists believe he’s a racist.”

The intensity of this election has been underscored by events. A Florida man was charged with sending explosive devices to more than a dozen high-profile critics of Trump and CNN. A day later, a Pennsylvania man was charged with a federal hate crimes over the massacre of 11 people at a Pittsburgh synagogue.

Trump has threatened to end birthright citizenship and to roll back protections for transgender people. On Twitter and at campaign rallies, he has stoked fears about a group of Central American migrants approaching the US border on foot, describing it as an “invasion”. Last month, the confirmation of supreme court justice Brett Kavanaugh, who was confirmed after accusations of sexual assault, which he denied, roiled both supporters of both parties.

‘Women like me aren’t supposed to run’

Issues of identity and race have also played distinguishing roles, particularly in Democratic primaries where there was less of an ideological gulf between the candidates.

“Women like me aren’t supposed to run for office,” Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said in a campaign video that launched what was at the time considered a long-shot bid for Congress. In June, the young Latina political newcomer beat the fourth-ranking House Democrat in the primary for her Queens- and Bronx-based district. At 29, she will likely be the youngest woman ever elected to Congress.

In Massachusetts, Ayanna Pressley, a 44-year-old black Boston councillor who ousted a 10-term incumbent in the Democratic primary, stressed the importance of identity.

“I fundamentally believe that the people closest to the pain should be closest to the power,” she said on the campaign trail, amplifying her slogan: “Change can’t wait.”

Jehmu Greene, a progressive political analyst on Fox News, said: “What is refreshing with many of these candidates is their fearlessness. We’re seeing them own their expertise and their experience … they are refusing to play by a set of rules designed by white male political consultants and they’re winning.”

One key factor behind the surge in diverse candidates is demographic change. As the US becomes more diverse, so does its slate of candidates for office. At the same time, organizations have cropped up, dedicated to recruiting and training for office women, young people and religious and ethnic minorities.

For Democrats and first-time office-seekers especially, surveys indicate that Trump has provided the major motivation to run. In many races, such candidates are running explicitly as a check on his presidency. Experts say Trump, who never held office before winning the White House, also helped lower the barrier to entry for candidates who may have feared they were under-qualified.

For all the signs of change, however, women and minorities are still significantly underrepresented on Capitol Hill. The election of 1992, the original Year of the Woman after the Clarence Thomas supreme court nomination battle, nearly doubled the number of women in Congress – to a less than whopping 10% of the total. It took the next quarter-century to double that.

This cycle, women – 51% of the nation – make up just 32% of all Senate candidates and 29% of all House candidates, according to the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP). There are significant disparities by party: 43% of Democratic candidates for Senate and House are women while women make up 22% of Republican Senate candidates and 13% of its House candidates.

Women will remain woefully underrepresented. If women win all of the House contests they are favored to win and competitive races considered a “toss up”, they will still only hold about 24% of House seats, according to CAWP.

Heather Barmore, director of communications for VoteRunLead, a nonpartisan organization that trains women to run for office, said political victories for women and minorities in 2018 would set the stage for 2028 and 2038.

“Young girls who are watching them now will think: ‘Hey, she looks like me. If she’s running for office with her natural hair or her hijab than I can run too,’” Barmore said.

“This is not just a momentary trend. We are moving into a period we can expect to see more and more candidates running who are representative of the electorate.”