The Trump Impeachment Threat Just Got Real

By Abigail Tracy, Vanity Fair

01 September 18

A new poll shows that the majority of Americans back Robert Mueller—and nearly half of independent voters support impeachment.

ith Republican strategists largely resigned to the probability that Democrats will retake the House in November, Donald Trump has begun to voice frustration, and even a note of desperation, regarding what he reportedly calls “the i-word.” “I don’t think they can impeach somebody that’s doing a great job,” Trump said Thursday during an Oval Office interview with Bloomberg News, citing his agenda on the economy, trade, and foreign policy. “I’m doing a great job.”

Of course, a strong economy didn’t prevent the impeachment of Bill Clinton, which began as the stock market continued to hit new highs from late 1998 through the beginning of 1999. In fact, the historical parallels are even less favorable for the president. Republicans have held on to the hope that Democrats will take a lesson from their own experience with Clinton, which largely backfired—Clinton’s approval rating soared, and Democrats gained seats in Congress in both 1998 and 2000. But a new poll, conducted in the week following the guilty plea of Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen and the conviction of his former campaign chairman Paul Manafort, suggests a different dynamic today. Trump’s disapproval rating has risen 4 percentage points since the last Washington Post-ABC survey, in April, to 60 percent. More important, approval for the Mueller investigation hit an all-time high, with 63 percent of Americans supporting the special counsel’s probe, according to the poll. These numbers not only suggest that the campaign led by Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani to discredit Mueller hasn’t gained traction, but that perceived attempts by Trump to interfere in the investigation have hurt his cause.

Those results would seem to argue against the notion that Trump could take more aggressive actions against Mueller without major political blowback. Critically, 64 percent of Americans believe that Trump shouldn’t fire Attorney General Jeff Sessions—including 47 percent of Republicans. Trump once counted Sessions among his top allies. But the former Alabama senator broke any bond he once had with the president when he recused himself from the Russia investigation last year amid pressure from lawmakers on Capitol Hill. Trump’s subsequent attempts to bully Sessions into resigning from his post have been interpreted as an indirect attack on the Mueller probe, as it is assumed that a new attorney general would be more accommodating of the president’s efforts to end it.

Whether the Trump White House will pay attention is another matter. Even Republican lawmakers appear to have accepted the firing of Sessions as a foregone conclusion, as Trump has revived his public attacks on his top lawyer in recent weeks. During his interview with Bloomberg, Trump derided Sessions for the Russia probe, which he characterized as an “illegal investigation,” but said the attorney general is safe at least through the midterm elections on November 6. But, arguably, given the widespread support for the A.G., any attempt to oust the head of the Justice Department could prove politically disastrous for Trump—regardless of the timing. According to the poll, 62 percent of Americans believe that Sessions was following the law when he stepped aside from the Russia probe, with a mere 23 percent supporting Trump’s view. And already, a slim, 53 percent majority of Americans already believe that Trump has interfered in the F.B.I.’s Russia investigation in a way that amounts to obstruction of justice. Firing Sessions to make room for a “loyalist” to lead the inquiry is unlikely to be interpreted as anything other than further interference by many voters.

If Trump fires Sessions after the midterms, and Democrats retake the House, it could be the spark that lights the impeachment fuse. This is, of course, a possibility the Republican Party and Trump allies have warned against. Aside from Democratic mega-donor Tom Steyer and a handful of Democrats in Congress, the narrative that the 2018 midterms will serve as a referendum on Trump’s impeachment has primarily been driven by the Republican Party as it grapples with the possibility of a blue wave this fall. “The idea of an impeachment is, frankly, a sad attempt by Democrats,” press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said during a White House briefing earlier this month, disregarding the pressure from Democratic leadership on rank-and-file lawmakers not to discuss impeachment. “It’s the only message they seem to have going into the midterms.”

But it’s not just Democrats who support booting Trump from office. Yes, a whopping 75 percent of Democrats strongly support impeaching Trump. But according to the poll, 49 percent of independent voters and 15 percent of Republican voters also strongly support Congress starting impeachment proceedings against Trump. When you include individuals who somewhat support Congress beginning impeachment proceedings against Trump, there is a majority support across party lines. In other words, depending on the way the electoral winds blow in November, what Republican Party leadership has sought to cast as a Democratic fantasy could become a painful reality for Trump with widespread support—even if he doesn’t fire Sessions.

The extent to which Trump understands the threat of impeachment is unclear. On Wednesday, The Washington Post reported that Trump has at least broached the topic with his advisers and legal team. But Trump allies are reportedly concerned that the president and his top White House advisers aren’t prepared for the political storm brewing. “Winter is coming,” as one Trump ally in close communication with the White House told the Post. “Assuming Democrats win the House, which we all believe is a very strong likelihood, the White House will be under siege. But it’s like tumbleweeds rolling down the halls over there. Nobody’s prepared for war.”

Come November, how the stock market is doing might be the furthest thing from Trump’s mind.