The 5 Big Takeaways From Our House Forecast

By Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

18 August 18

 

emocrats are favored to gain control of the House of Representatives in this year’s midterm elections, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast model. But — a very FiveThirtyEight-ish sentence follows — the range of possible outcomes is wide and Democrats’ prospects are far from certain. Relatively small shifts could allow Republicans to keep control of the House, or could turn a blue wave into a tsunami.

What’s behind all of this? Our methodology post goes into a lot more detail about how our forecasts are calculated. But that explanation is rather abstract, so in this article, I’m going to focus on how these factors are playing out given what we know about the political environment this year.

Theme No. 1: A broad consensus of indicators point toward Democrats performing well

In contrast to our presidential forecasts, which are heavily dependent on polling, our House model uses a broad mix of polling and non-polling indicators, including factors such as fundraising totals and historical trends in midterms. Those indicators look both pretty good for Democrats and remarkably consistent with one another:

• The Lite version of our forecast, which focuses as much as possible on district-level and generic ballot polls, projects Democrats to win the popular vote for the House by 7 or 8 percentage points.
• The Classic version of the model, which incorporates a lot of non-polling metrics such as fundraising and past voting in each district, also shows Democrats winning the popular vote by 7 or 8 points.
• The generic ballot, which influences all three versions of our forecast, has generally shown Democrats with a lead of … 7 to 8 percentage points.
• And finally, our model calculates a starting assumption about the race based on historical trends in midterms since 1946 and presidential approval ratings. It also implies that Democrats “should” win the House popular vote by about 8 percentage points — just what the other metrics show.

So you’d expect Democrats to do pretty well based on the historical propensity of opposition parties to gain ground in midterm elections, especially under unpopular presidents. And Democrats are doing roughly as well as you’d expect them to according to most indicators of the national environment.

There are a couple of exceptions — indicators that are a little out of the consensus — but both of them fall on the better-for-Democrats side of the consensus. First, Democrats have done really impressively in fundraising. Their candidates have raised more in individual contributions than Republicans in 71 of the 101 districts rated as competitive by the Cook Political Report, despite the fact that about two-thirds of these districts feature Republican incumbents. That’s unusual. Most challengers significantly trail in fundraising at this point in the cycle. Meanwhile, the results of special elections have been very good for Democrats. Our model doesn’t actually use special election results in its forecasts, but they’re part of a coherent alternative narrative in which there’s upside for Democrats relative to what our forecast shows. Donating money and voting in special elections are tangible indicators of voter engagement, and it’s possible that they point toward a Democratic enthusiasm advantage that could become clearer later on in the cycle.

Theme No. 2: However, there’s some feast-or-famine risk for Democrats

It’s much to Democrats’ credit that there are so many districts in play in all corners of the country. (Based on our accounting, Democrats have fielded a nominee in all but three of the 435 congressional districts nationwide.) But if you had to pinpoint the exact districts that Democrats should hope to win to gain 23 seats and take the House majority, you’d have a pretty hard time. We have only 215 seats rated as favoring Democrats — “lean Democrat” or stronger — which is fewer than the 218 they need to take the House.

Nonetheless, Democrats are favored to win the majority if current conditions hold because they’ll have a bunch of opportunities, even as underdogs, to win those extra seats: 14 toss-up races, 19 “lean Republican” races and 53 “likely Republican” contests. Those are a lot of lottery tickets to punch, even if Democrats aren’t necessarily favored in any individual race.

But Democrats would have a problem if there’s a shift in the national climate toward Republicans, or even if there’s a relatively modest systematic polling error in the GOP’s favor on Election Day. All of the sudden, they’d lose most of the toss-up races along with some of the “lean Democrat” races — and the “lean Republican” and “likely Republican” seats would become an uphill climb at best.

The flip side to this is that if the political environment gets better for Democrats, their seat gains could pile up at an accelerating rate. There are a plethora of districts that are 10 to 20 points more Republican than the country as a whole, a lot of which were gerrymandered to be “safe” for Republican candidates — but where the gerrymanders could fail in the event of a large enough wave.

Theme No. 3: Incumbents — especially Republican incumbents — are really vulnerable

The first line of defense for a party hoping to maintain its majority is incumbency. Even if the national political climate is unfavorable, its incumbents may be popular enough in their districts to withstand the wave.

The issue for Republicans is that the incumbency advantage has been weakening over time — and it appears to be especially flimsy this year. In the 1990s, incumbents overperformed the partisan baseline of their districts by somewhere on the order of 20 percentage points. (So, for example, a district that might favor Republicans by 2 points in an open-seat race would go to the GOP by 22 points if there were a Republican incumbent running.) In more recent elections, as Congress has become less and less popular, the incumbency advantage has eroded to more like 10 to 12 percentage points. And between Republicans’ anemic fundraising, GOP incumbents’ voting records — which are highly aligned with President Trump’s positions, even in purple districts — and reasonably good district-by-district polling for Democratic challengers, our model is projecting only about a 6-point advantage for GOP incumbents this year. Plus, a lot of Republican incumbents have retired.

Our forecast also shows a relatively narrow advantage for Democratic incumbents. But Democratic incumbents have little exposure in the House: Any Democratic representative who was strong enough to survive the GOP waves in both 2010 and 2014 probably won’t have any problems this year. (It’s a entirely different story in the Senate, where there are lots of vulnerable Democratic incumbents who were last re-elected in the strong Democratic year of 2012.)

Theme No. 4: Potential Democratic gains are broad-based, across all regions of the country

One factor helping Trump in 2016 was that he really needed to beat his polls in only one part of the country, the Midwest, to defeat Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College. (Outside of the Midwest, the polls were reasonably accurate and even underestimated Clinton in some states.) By contrast, Republicans are facing a multi-front assault in the House this year:

• In the Northeast, they have a lot of exposure in New York and New Jersey, which were once bastions of moderate Republicanism but which have become increasingly inhospitable to this brand of politics — and in Pennsylvania, where court-ordered redistricting resulted in a bad map for Republicans and where a lot of GOP incumbents have retired.
• In the South, they face pressure because of demographic change in states such as Georgia and Virginia — and increasingly in Texas.
• In the Midwest, there’s the risk of reversion to the mean with Trump off the ballot, especially as the GOP coalition in these states has come to rely on voters without a college degree who don’t always participate in midterm elections.
• And in the West, there are 14 Republican-controlled seats in California and another four in Washington that look increasingly out of place as the Pacific Coast becomes a somewhat literal “blue wall.”

As it happens, projected Democratic gains are almost evenly distributed between the four Census Bureau regions: The Classic version of our model projects them to gain nine seats in the Midwest, nine in the South, nine in the Northeast and eight in the West. Note that Democrats could completely flop in any one of these regions and yet still (just barely) win enough seats to take the House.

Our forecast shows Democrats gaining House seats all over the country

		Democratic-Held Seats
Census Region	Total Seats	Current	FORECASTED*	net gain
Northeast	78	51	60	+9
Midwest	94	33	42	+9
South	161	48	57	+9
West	102	63	71	+8

Theme No. 5: Democrats need to win the popular vote by a fairly wide margin

The Classic version of our model gives Democrats a near certainty (about a 98 percent chance) of winning more votes than the GOP in the race for the House — but “only” a 3 in 4 chance of winning the majority of seats. This discrepancy between votes and seats reflects a combination of gerrymandering, voter self-sorting and incumbency, all of which favor Republicans to some degree. Thus, in the Classic version of our forecast, Democrats would need to win the popular vote by about 5 percentage points in order to become favorites to win the majority of seats in the House. And in the Lite and Deluxe versions, the break-even point is closer to a 6-point popular-vote win.

Nonetheless, these margins aren’t as bad for Democrats as they might be. At earlier points in the cycle, Democrats had appeared to need more like a 7- to 8-point advantage in the national popular vote to be favored to claim the majority of seats. Since then, the Republican edge has been eroded by retirements, by Pennsylvania’s redistricting and by the relatively weak GOP incumbency advantage (see Theme No. 3). All of this might seem like splitting hairs, but because so many indicators (see Theme No. 1) point toward Democrats winning the popular vote by a margin of something like 7 or 8 percentage points, these subtle differences are important.

I’ll be on vacation next week — excuse me, I’ll be investigating ground-level conditions in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District — but we’re going to be returning to these themes again and again between now and Nov. 6, so let’s call it a day. As a bonus, though, here’s a table put together by my colleague Julia Wolfe showing what our Classic forecast thinks of the race in every district in the country.

The odds for all 435 house races

According to the Classic version of FiveThirtyEight’s House model, as of 6 p.m. on Aug. 16, 2018

 

		probabilities that……
district	Incumbent	A Democrat Wins	A Republican Wins
AK-1	Don Young	24.31%	75.69%
AL-1	Bradley Byrne	0.05	99.95
AL-2	Martha Roby	2.39	97.61
AL-3	Mike Rogers	0.18	99.82
AL-4	Robert B. Aderholt	0.00	>99%
AL-5	Mo Brooks	0.18	99.82
AL-6	Gary Palmer	0.02	99.98
AL-7	Terri A. Sewell	100.00	0.00
AR-1	Rick Crawford	0.16	99.83
AR-2	French Hill	22.65	77.34
AR-3	Steve Womack	0.08	99.92
AR-4	Bruce Westerman	0.13	99.87
AZ-1	Tom O’Halleran	94.16	5.83
AZ-2	Open seat	90.01	9.99
AZ-3	Raul Grijalva	99.97	0.03
AZ-4	Paul A. Gosar	0.06	99.94
AZ-5	Andy Biggs	0.20	99.80
AZ-6	David Schweikert	13.39	86.61
AZ-7	Ruben Gallego	99.98	0.00
AZ-8	Debbie Lesko	21.54	78.46
AZ-9	Open seat	98.82	1.18
CA-1	Doug LaMalfa	13.94	86.06
CA-2	Jared Huffman	>99%	0.00
CA-3	John Garamendi	99.87	0.13
CA-4	Tom McClintock	12.50	87.50
CA-5	Mike Thompson	99.95	0.00
CA-6	Doris O. Matsui	100.00	0.00
CA-7	Ami Bera	98.13	1.87
CA-8	Paul Cook	0.00	100.00
CA-9	Jerry McNerney	99.86	0.14
CA-10	Jeff Denham	70.77	29.23
CA-11	Mark DeSaulnier	>99%	0.00
CA-12	Nancy Pelosi	>99%	0.00
CA-13	Barbara Lee	99.99	0.00
CA-14	Jackie Speier	>99%	0.00
CA-15	Eric Swalwell	>99%	0.00
CA-16	Jim Costa	99.77	0.23
CA-17	Ro Khanna	>99%	0.00
CA-18	Anna G. Eshoo	>99%	0.00
CA-19	Zoe Lofgren	>99%	0.00
CA-20	Jimmy Panetta	99.88	0.00
CA-21	David Valadao	64.34	35.66
CA-22	Devin Nunes	2.23	97.77
CA-23	Kevin McCarthy	0.11	99.89
CA-24	Salud Carbajal	97.27	2.73
CA-25	Steve Knight	77.44	22.56
CA-26	Julia Brownley	99.82	0.18
CA-27	Judy Chu	100.00	0.00
CA-28	Adam Schiff	>99%	0.00
CA-29	Tony Cárdenas	>99%	0.00
CA-30	Brad Sherman	>99%	0.00
CA-31	Pete Aguilar	99.82	0.18
CA-32	Grace Napolitano	>99%	0.00
CA-33	Ted Lieu	>99%	0.00
CA-34	Jimmy Gomez	99.98	0.00
CA-35	Norma Torres	>99%	0.00
CA-36	Raul Ruiz	99.68	0.32
CA-37	Karen Bass	>99%	0.00
CA-38	Linda Sánchez	>99%	0.00
CA-39	Open seat	34.57	65.43
CA-40	Lucille Roybal-Allard	99.89	0.00
CA-41	Mark Takano	99.99	0.01
CA-42	Ken Calvert	2.25	97.75
CA-43	Maxine Waters	>99%	0.00
CA-44	Nanette Diaz Barragán	100.00	0.00
CA-45	Mimi Walters	58.04	41.96
CA-46	J. Luis Correa	>99%	0.00
CA-47	Alan Lowenthal	99.97	0.03
CA-48	Dana Rohrabacher	66.27	33.73
CA-49	Open seat	74.91	25.09
CA-50	Duncan D. Hunter	8.17	91.83
CA-51	Juan Vargas	>99%	0.00
CA-52	Scott Peters	99.80	0.20
CA-53	Susan Davis	99.97	0.03
CO-1	Diana DeGette	>99%	0.00
CO-2	Open seat	99.78	0.22
CO-3	Scott Tipton	40.54	59.46
CO-4	Ken Buck	3.63	96.37
CO-5	Doug Lamborn	2.79	97.21
CO-6	Mike Coffman	64.57	35.43
CO-7	Ed Perlmutter	99.69	0.31
CT-1	John B. Larson	99.97	0.02
CT-2	Joe Courtney	99.93	0.07
CT-3	Rosa L. DeLauro	99.98	0.02
CT-4	Jim Himes	99.84	0.16
CT-5	Open seat	96.33	3.66
DE-1	Lisa Blunt Rochester	98.77	1.23
FL-1	Matt Gaetz	0.01	99.99
FL-2	Neal Dunn	0.02	99.98
FL-3	Ted Yoho	1.18	98.82
FL-4	John Rutherford	0.03	99.97
FL-5	Al Lawson	99.99	0.01
FL-6	Open seat	28.17	71.83
FL-7	Stephanie Murphy	97.43	2.57
FL-8	Bill Posey	1.95	98.05
FL-9	Darren Soto	99.86	0.14
FL-10	Val Demings	100.00	0.00
FL-11	Daniel Webster	0.07	99.93
FL-12	Gus M. Bilirakis	1.56	98.43
FL-13	Charlie Crist	99.60	0.40
FL-14	Kathy Castor	100.00	0.00
FL-15	Open seat	27.57	72.43
FL-16	Vern Buchanan	11.59	88.41
FL-17	Open seat	0.37	99.63
FL-18	Brian Mast	7.58	92.42
FL-19	Francis Rooney	0.64	99.36
FL-20	Alcee L. Hastings	100.00	0.00
FL-21	Lois Frankel	100.00	0.00
FL-22	Ted Deutch	99.88	0.12
FL-23	Debbie Wasserman Schultz	99.69	0.31
FL-24	Frederica Wilson	100.00	0.00
FL-25	Mario Diaz-Balart	28.18	71.82
FL-26	Carlos Curbelo	37.89	62.11
FL-27	Open seat	97.11	2.89
GA-1	Buddy Carter	0.21	99.79
GA-2	Sanford D. Bishop Jr.	99.89	0.11
GA-3	A. Drew Ferguson	0.01	99.99
GA-4	Hank Johnson	>99%	0.00
GA-5	John Lewis	100.00	0.00
GA-6	Karen C. Handel	4.62	95.38
GA-7	Rob Woodall	29.40	70.60
GA-8	Austin Scott	0.00	100.00
GA-9	Doug Collins	0.00	>99%
GA-10	Jody Hice	0.01	99.99
GA-11	Barry Loudermilk	0.06	99.94
GA-12	Rick Allen	1.76	98.24
GA-13	David Scott	>99%	0.00
GA-14	Tom Graves	0.00	>99%
HI-1	Open seat	>99%	0.00
HI-2	Tulsi Gabbard	>99%	0.00
IA-1	Rod Blum	72.87	27.13
IA-2	David Loebsack	96.99	3.01
IA-3	David Young	66.97	33.03
IA-4	Steve King	17.55	82.44
ID-1	Open seat	0.04	99.96
ID-2	Mike Simpson	0.31	99.69
IL-1	Bobby L. Rush	>99%	0.00
IL-2	Robin Kelly	>99%	0.00
IL-3	Daniel Lipinski	99.98	0.02
IL-4	Open seat	>99%	0.00
IL-5	Mike Quigley	>99%	0.00
IL-6	Peter J. Roskam	25.34	74.66
IL-7	Danny K. Davis	>99%	0.00
IL-8	Raja Krishnamoorthi	99.89	0.11
IL-9	Jan Schakowsky	>99%	0.00
IL-10	Bradley Schneider	99.91	0.09
IL-11	Bill Foster	99.94	0.06
IL-12	Mike Bost	38.37	61.63
IL-13	Rodney Davis	32.50	67.50
IL-14	Randy Hultgren	35.98	64.02
IL-15	John Shimkus	0.03	99.97
IL-16	Adam Kinzinger	2.23	97.77
IL-17	Cheri Bustos	99.86	0.14
IL-18	Darin LaHood	0.02	99.98
IN-1	Peter Visclosky	99.98	0.02
IN-2	Jackie Walorski	7.46	92.54
IN-3	Jim Banks	0.26	99.74
IN-4	Open seat	0.72	99.28
IN-5	Susan W. Brooks	0.93	99.07
IN-6	Open seat	0.11	99.89
IN-7	André Carson	99.99	0.01
IN-8	Larry Bucshon	0.77	99.23
IN-9	Trey Hollingsworth	23.53	76.47
KS-1	Roger Marshall	0.00	>99%
KS-2	Open seat	39.00	60.99
KS-3	Kevin Yoder	21.21	78.78
KS-4	Ron Estes	12.73	87.27
KY-1	James Comer	0.01	99.99
KY-2	Brett S. Guthrie	0.12	99.88
KY-3	John A. Yarmuth	99.35	0.64
KY-4	Thomas Massie	0.06	99.94
KY-5	Harold Rogers	0.00	>99%
KY-6	Andy Barr	47.30	52.70
LA-1	Steve Scalise	0.00	>99%
LA-2	Cedric Richmond	100.00	0.00
LA-3	Clay Higgins	0.09	99.91
LA-4	Mike Johnson	0.20	99.80
LA-5	Ralph Abraham	0.07	99.93
LA-6	Garrett Graves	0.00	>99%
MA-1	Richard E. Neal	100.00	0.00
MA-2	James McGovern	99.98	0.02
MA-3	Open seat	99.90	0.10
MA-4	Joseph P. Kennedy III	100.00	0.00
MA-5	Katherine Clark	>99%	0.00
MA-6	Seth Moulton	99.97	0.03
MA-7	Michael E. Capuano	100.00	0.00
MA-8	Stephen F. Lynch	100.00	0.00
MA-9	William Keating	98.78	1.22
MD-1	Andy Harris	1.10	98.90
MD-2	C. A. Dutch Ruppersberger	99.98	0.02
MD-3	John P. Sarbanes	99.99	0.01
MD-4	Anthony Brown	>99%	0.00
MD-5	Steny H. Hoyer	99.99	0.01
MD-6	Open seat	98.83	1.17
MD-7	Elijah Cummings	>99%	0.00
MD-8	Jamie Raskin	>99%	0.00
ME-1	Chellie Pingree	99.44	0.56
ME-2	Bruce Poliquin	40.79	59.21
MI-1	Jack Bergman	18.99	81.01
MI-2	Bill Huizenga	5.88	94.12
MI-3	Justin Amash	1.92	98.08
MI-4	John Moolenaar	0.44	99.56
MI-5	Daniel Kildee	99.79	0.21
MI-6	Fred Upton	14.96	85.04
MI-7	Tim Walberg	38.06	61.94
MI-8	Mike Bishop	42.62	57.38
MI-9	Open seat	98.89	1.11
MI-10	Paul Mitchell	0.24	99.76
MI-11	Open seat	65.19	34.81
MI-12	Debbie Dingell	99.99	0.01
MI-13	Open seat	100.00	0.00
MI-14	Brenda Lawrence	>99%	0.00
MN-1	Open seat	45.34	54.66
MN-2	Jason Lewis	76.13	23.87
MN-3	Erik Paulsen	65.79	34.21
MN-4	Betty McCollum	99.98	0.02
MN-5	Open seat	>99%	0.00
MN-6	Tom Emmer	0.19	99.81
MN-7	Collin C. Peterson	85.48	14.52
MN-8	Open seat	35.44	64.56
MO-1	William “Lacy” Clay Jr.	>99%	0.00
MO-2	Ann Wagner	10.17	89.83
MO-3	Blaine Luetkemeyer	0.02	99.98
MO-4	Vicky Hartzler	0.08	99.92
MO-5	Emanuel Cleaver	99.78	0.22
MO-6	Sam Graves	0.06	99.94
MO-7	Billy Long	0.01	99.99
MO-8	Jason Smith	0.01	99.99
MS-1	Trent Kelly	0.07	99.93
MS-2	Bennie G. Thompson	99.53	0.00
MS-3	Open seat	0.27	99.73
MS-4	Steven Palazzo	0.45	99.55
MT-1	Greg Gianforte	12.18	87.81
NC-1	G.K. Butterfield	>99%	0.00
NC-2	George Holding	10.74	89.25
NC-3	Walter B. Jones	0.00	100.00
NC-4	David Price	>99%	0.00
NC-5	Virginia Foxx	5.19	94.81
NC-6	Mark Walker	21.51	78.49
NC-7	David Rouzer	7.18	92.82
NC-8	Richard Hudson	14.12	85.88
NC-9	Open seat	50.35	49.64
NC-10	Patrick T. McHenry	0.30	99.70
NC-11	Mark Meadows	0.34	99.66
NC-12	Alma Adams	>99%	0.00
NC-13	Ted Budd	37.21	62.79
ND-1	Open seat	1.34	98.66
NE-1	Jeff Fortenberry	0.15	99.85
NE-2	Don Bacon	58.20	41.80
NE-3	Adrian Smith	0.00	>99%
NH-1	Open seat	75.26	24.74
NH-2	Ann Kuster	98.55	1.45
NJ-1	Donald Norcross	99.98	0.02
NJ-2	Open seat	87.08	12.92
NJ-3	Tom MacArthur	43.91	56.09
NJ-4	Chris Smith	6.66	93.34
NJ-5	Josh Gottheimer	99.02	0.98
NJ-6	Frank Pallone Jr.	99.98	0.02
NJ-7	Leonard Lance	63.22	36.78
NJ-8	Albio Sires	>99%	0.00
NJ-9	Bill Pascrell Jr.	>99%	0.00
NJ-10	Donald Payne Jr.	>99%	0.00
NJ-11	Open seat	72.34	27.66
NJ-12	Bonnie Watson Coleman	>99%	0.00
NM-1	Open seat	97.92	2.07
NM-2	Open seat	24.28	75.72
NM-3	Ben R. Lujan	99.98	0.01
NV-1	Dina Titus	99.98	0.02
NV-2	Mark Amodei	1.31	98.69
NV-3	Open seat	66.86	33.14
NV-4	Open seat	78.55	21.45
NY-1	Lee Zeldin	10.95	89.05
NY-2	Pete King	18.79	81.21
NY-3	Thomas Suozzi	99.14	0.86
NY-4	Kathleen Rice	99.87	0.13
NY-5	Gregory W. Meeks	100.00	0.00
NY-6	Grace Meng	99.97	0.00
NY-7	Nydia M. Velázquez	99.99	0.00
NY-8	Hakeem Jeffries	100.00	0.00
NY-9	Yvette D. Clarke	>99%	0.00
NY-10	Jerrold Nadler	>99%	0.00
NY-11	Daniel Donovan	24.32	75.68
NY-12	Carolyn Maloney	>99%	0.00
NY-13	Adriano Espaillat	>99%	0.00
NY-14	Joseph Crowley	>99%	0.00
NY-15	José E. Serrano	>99%	0.00
NY-16	Eliot Engel	99.98	0.00
NY-17	Nita Lowey	99.95	0.00
NY-18	Sean Patrick Maloney	98.26	1.74
NY-19	John Faso	52.13	47.87
NY-20	Paul D. Tonko	99.98	0.02
NY-21	Elise Stefanik	7.38	92.62
NY-22	Claudia Tenney	71.17	28.83
NY-23	Tom Reed	4.86	95.14
NY-24	John Katko	36.66	63.34
NY-25	Open seat	99.72	0.28
NY-26	Brian Higgins	>99%	0.00
NY-27	Open seat	24.50	75.49
OH-1	Steve Chabot	58.23	41.77
OH-2	Brad Wenstrup	5.50	94.50
OH-3	Joyce Beatty	>99%	0.00
OH-4	Jim Jordan	4.48	95.52
OH-5	Robert E. Latta	0.31	99.68
OH-6	Bill Johnson	0.04	99.96
OH-7	Bob Gibbs	11.38	88.62
OH-8	Warren Davidson	0.06	99.94
OH-9	Marcy Kaptur	99.97	0.02
OH-10	Michael Turner	6.42	93.58
OH-11	Marcia L. Fudge	>99%	0.00
OH-12	Troy Balderson	48.95	51.05
OH-13	Tim Ryan	99.95	0.05
OH-14	David Joyce	18.93	81.07
OH-15	Steve Stivers	2.63	97.37
OH-16	Open seat	4.99	95.01
OK-1	Open seat	0.75	99.25
OK-2	Markwayne Mullin	0.01	99.99
OK-3	Frank Lucas	0.00	>99%
OK-4	Tom Cole	0.02	99.98
OK-5	Steve Russell	23.67	76.33
OR-1	Suzanne Bonamici	99.96	0.04
OR-2	Greg Walden	0.26	99.73
OR-3	Earl Blumenauer	100.00	0.00
OR-4	Peter DeFazio	99.17	0.83
OR-5	Kurt Schrader	99.61	0.39
PA-1	Brian Fitzpatrick	21.52	78.48
PA-2	Brendan Boyle	>99%	0.00
PA-3	Dwight Evans	>99%	0.00
PA-4	Open seat	99.63	0.37
PA-5	Open seat	99.98	0.02
PA-6	Open seat	97.60	2.40
PA-7	Open seat	86.77	13.22
PA-8	Matt Cartwright	93.52	6.48
PA-9	Open seat	0.90	99.10
PA-10	Scott Perry	14.85	85.15
PA-11	Lloyd Smucker	27.28	72.72
PA-12	Tom Marino	0.18	99.82
PA-13	Open seat	0.01	99.99
PA-14	Open seat	1.23	98.77
PA-15	Glenn W. Thompson	0.08	99.92
PA-16	Mike Kelly	4.76	95.24
PA-17	Conor Lamb	92.96	7.04
PA-18	Mike Doyle	100.00	0.00
RI-1	David Cicilline	99.98	0.02
RI-2	Jim Langevin	99.97	0.03
SC-1	Open seat	15.00	85.00
SC-2	Joe Wilson	0.85	99.15
SC-3	Jeff Duncan	0.15	99.85
SC-4	Open seat	0.05	99.95
SC-5	Ralph Norman	12.36	87.64
SC-6	James E. Clyburn	>99%	0.00
SC-7	Tom Rice	1.06	98.94
SD-1	Open seat	1.44	98.56
TN-1	Phil Roe	0.00	>99%
TN-2	Open seat	0.03	99.97
TN-3	Chuck Fleischmann	0.13	99.87
TN-4	Scott DesJarlais	0.76	99.24
TN-5	Jim Cooper	99.97	0.03
TN-6	Open seat	0.00	>99%
TN-7	Open seat	0.03	99.97
TN-8	David Kustoff	0.02	99.98
TN-9	Steve Cohen	>99%	0.00
TX-1	Louie Gohmert	0.00	>99%
TX-2	Open seat	7.84	92.16
TX-3	Open seat	0.77	99.22
TX-4	John Ratcliffe	0.00	>99%
TX-5	Open seat	0.08	99.92
TX-6	Open seat	6.64	93.36
TX-7	John Culberson	49.32	50.68
TX-8	Kevin Brady	0.00	>99%
TX-9	Al Green	100.00	0.00
TX-10	Michael T. McCaul	2.62	97.38
TX-11	K. Michael Conaway	0.00	>99%
TX-12	Kay Granger	0.01	99.99
TX-13	Mac Thornberry	0.00	>99%
TX-14	Randy Weber	1.75	98.25
TX-15	Vicente Gonzalez	99.90	0.10
TX-16	Open seat	99.98	0.02
TX-17	Bill Flores	0.52	99.48
TX-18	Sheila Jackson Lee	>99%	0.00
TX-19	Jodey Arrington	0.00	>99%
TX-20	Joaquin Castro	99.94	0.00
TX-21	Open seat	17.81	82.17
TX-22	Pete Olson	14.17	85.83
TX-23	Will Hurd	72.36	27.64
TX-24	Kenny Marchant	4.37	95.62
TX-25	Roger Williams	7.09	92.91
TX-26	Michael Burgess	0.12	99.88
TX-27	Michael Cloud	0.48	99.52
TX-28	Henry Cuellar	99.95	0.00
TX-29	Open seat	99.99	0.01
TX-30	Eddie Bernice Johnson	99.99	0.00
TX-31	John Carter	20.11	79.88
TX-32	Pete Sessions	11.74	88.25
TX-33	Marc Veasey	99.99	0.01
TX-34	Filemon Vela	99.95	0.05
TX-35	Lloyd Doggett	99.99	0.01
TX-36	Brian Babin	0.02	99.98
UT-1	Rob Bishop	0.03	99.97
UT-2	Chris Stewart	2.53	97.43
UT-3	John R. Curtis	0.03	99.97
UT-4	Mia Love	19.01	80.99
VA-1	Robert J. Wittman	1.50	98.50
VA-2	Scott Taylor	8.14	91.86
VA-3	Robert C. Scott	100.00	0.00
VA-4	A. Donald McEachin	99.86	0.14
VA-5	Open seat	48.78	51.22
VA-6	Open seat	0.34	99.66
VA-7	Dave Brat	32.08	67.92
VA-8	Don Beyer	>99%	0.00
VA-9	Morgan Griffith	0.16	99.84
VA-10	Barbara Comstock	74.71	25.29
VA-11	Gerald E. Connolly	99.99	0.01
VT-1	Peter Welch	99.98	0.02
WA-1	Suzan DelBene	99.87	0.13
WA-2	Rick Larsen	99.88	0.00
WA-3	Jaime Herrera Beutler	10.00	90.00
WA-4	Dan Newhouse	0.80	99.20
WA-5	Cathy McMorris Rodgers	28.14	71.86
WA-6	Derek Kilmer	99.93	0.07
WA-7	Pramila Jayapal	>99%	0.00
WA-8	Open seat	44.36	55.64
WA-9	Adam Smith	100.00	0.00
WA-10	Denny Heck	99.90	0.10
WI-1	Open seat	20.76	79.24
WI-2	Mark Pocan	100.00	0.00
WI-3	Ron Kind	99.27	0.73
WI-4	Gwen Moore	>99%	0.00
WI-5	F. James Sensenbrenner	2.01	97.99
WI-6	Glenn Grothman	29.23	70.77
WI-7	Sean P. Duffy	0.89	99.11
WI-8	Mike Gallagher	0.76	99.24
WV-1	David McKinley	0.30	99.70
WV-2	Alex Mooney	3.65	96.35
WV-3	Open seat	6.03	93.97
WY-1	Liz Cheney	0.02	99.98