Obamacare Repeal Vote Still Too Close to Call

By Jennifer Haberkorn, Seung Min Kim and Burgess Everett, Politico

25 July 17

Momentum is on Mitch McConnell's side but a half-dozen Republicans are still on the fence heading into an all-important vote Tuesday.

enate Republicans neared a dramatic vote Tuesday to start dismantling Obamacare claiming that momentum is on their side — but not sure they actually have the votes.

At stake are not just the seven-year-old campaign pledge to repeal Obamacare, but also demonstrating that Republicans — when given full control of Washington — can govern. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz,), recently diagnosed with brain cancer, heightened a rare moment of genuine suspense on Capitol Hill when he announced Monday evening he would return to Washington for the vote.

"I'm optimistic right now," said Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.). "John McCain's coming back. That's positive."

Though McCain's return was being used as motivation for wavering senators, the vote count was unclear as of midday Tuesday. About a half-dozen senators were publicly undecided about whether to allow debate to start on rolling back the Affordable Care Act as President Donald Trump and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell desperately sought their votes.

McConnell urged senators to take the first step to “provide relief on this failed left-wing experiment.”

“I’d like to reiterate what the president said yesterday. ‘Any senator who votes against starting debate,’ he said, ‘is telling America that you are fine with the Obamacare nightmare…’ That’s a position that even Democrats have found hard to defend,” McConnell said.

McCain's return "probably creates a sense that he wouldn't be coming back unless the leader told him there was an important reason to come back," said Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.). "On the other hand, if we don't get this done we're going to go to" a defense policy bill.

If they are able to start debate, the end game would be a dramatically narrowed version of repeal because Republicans cannot agree so far on broader policy goals. After a series of votes on amendments, Republicans would aim to enact a bill repealing a relatively small portion of Obamacare: the individual and employer mandates and the medical device tax, according to Republican sources.

"Whatever gets to 50," said Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.).

The goal would be to get an Obamacare repeal bill through the Senate and to a conference with the House.

Completing the defense measure is McCain's top priority, senators said, though his vote on health care could be the difference between success or failure for GOP leaders.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), a vocal critic of the GOP's replacement plans for Obamacare, indicated he could back the key procedural vote if the ultimate goal is a straight repeal of the law. His vote is conditioned on the party agreeing to move quickly to a vote on repealing without a replacement, yet could represent a major breakthrough for McConnell. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) remains the firmest "no" vote.

McConnell can only afford to lose two GOP votes.

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), a critical swing vote, would not comment on how she will vote. She spent Monday evening with Trump, who pressured her to back the bill.

"No comments today," Capito said in a brief interview. She has been undecided, along with Sens. Jerry Moran of Kansas, Mike Lee of Utah, Dean Heller of Nevada, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Rob Portman of Ohio and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin.

Asked if he will vote to proceed, Johnson replied: "To what?"

"Kind of need to know what the game plan is," he said.

The vote is expected Tuesday afternoon after what is likely to be a lively Republican caucus lunch. McConnell is hoping to use McCain's return and momentum from one final plea to his members at the lunch gathering to clinch 50 votes to open debate on repealing Obamacare.

"I don't predict the Senate," said Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), a close McConnell ally who's spent months on the trying to refine a replacement bill that can win a majority.

McConnell and his leadership team are throwing everything they have at wavering senators: the threat of political disaster if they fail, an open amendment process to allow their ideas to be debated — and the argument that a flawed Senate bill can be fixed later in conference negotiations with the House.

"If we can get the bill through the Senate we can start negotiations with the House,” said Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas).

Administration officials and senators are discussing adding as much as $100 billion more to earlier drafts to help low-income people with premiums, Republicans said. Senators also may consider a scaled back version of Obamacare repeal that would allow them to pass something and get to conference, Republicans said.

"I don't know if they've got 50 but I know that I'm not going to vote for something that's a scaled down version, that's a political punt," said Sen. Lindsey Graham. The South Carolina Republican will vote for the motion to proceed but added that a final product to fix the health care system should go through "regular order."

“Big day for HealthCare,” Trump tweeted Tuesday morning. “After 7 years of talking, we will soon see whether or not Republicans are willing to step up to the plate!"

If Senate Republicans can successfully begin debate on Tuesday, it would mark a huge political win as the GOP has been near death on Obamacare repeal many times in the past several weeks. Debate would start with no clear path to how to finish the bill.

It is still unclear what policy the Senate is going to vote on. To get their members on board, Republican leaders are being as vague as possible about what the final bill to replace Obamacare would include, after two recent drafts met fatal opposition.

Republicans are strongly considering a strategy that would tee up two separate votes if the procedural vote is successful— one on the repeal only and another on the plan the Senate has been working on to repeal and replace Obamacare.

If the vote is unsuccessful, Republicans have pledged to keep working at repealing the law. Senior Republicans have speculated that conservative backlash over a failed vote could pull some senators back to the negotiating table.

Democrats feared the worst with McCain's return.

"I can't imagine Mitch McConnell would ask John McCain to come back if he didn't have the votes. I really believe that you have to assume that," said Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). "It is above and beyond the call of duty ... to make a 2,000-mile journey for a vote if Senator McConnell doesn't believe he has the necessary votes."