Trump to Greet Netanyahu by Abandoning 'Two-State' Doctrine

By Michael Crowley, Politico

15 February 17

 

The Israeli prime minister will be welcomed with a new U.S. line on the Palestinian conflict but has questions for Trump on the Iran deal.

enjamin Netanyahu has never had it so good in Washington.

After eight years of visits to an Obama White House where he was seen as a political adversary and an obstacle to Middle East peace, the Israeli Prime Minister will be greeted at the Trump White House on Wednesday like a beloved old friend — and as a welcome distraction from headlines about Russia and the sacking of national security adviser Michael Flynn.

Netanyahu has known both Trump and the family of Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, for over a decade. His ambassador to the U.S., Ron Dermer, has developed a close bond with Kushner and was spotted walking near the White House with Trump’s senior adviser, Stephen Bannon, on Tuesday. On Thursday night, one of Netanyahu’s staunchest supporters, the billionaire casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, dined with Trump at the White House.

The visit will “usher in a new relationship between Israel and the United States — something that Israel has not seen in well over eight years, a relationship that will show there is no daylight,” a Trump White House official said Tuesday night.

The visit may also usher in a new era for U.S. policy toward the Middle East. On Tuesday night, White House officials briefing reporters said that Trump wouldn’t seek to impose a two-state solution for the Israel-Palestinian conflict — a break with a decades-long American posture.

“Maybe, maybe not,” one official said of the two-state solution. "It's something the two sides have to agree to. It's not for us to impose that vision. But I think we'll find out more about that tomorrow."

That would be a major gift from Trump to the Israeli leader, who faces pressure from a leading right-wing rival, Education Minister Naftali Bennett, to avoid uttering the words "two-state solution." Bennett wrote in a Facebook post on Saturday that the meeting with Trump would be "the test of Benjamin Netanyahu's life” and saying that “the Earth will shake” if Netanyahu uses the phrase.

Under a two-state solution, Israel would end its military occupation of Palestinian areas and allow the Palestinians to form their own self-governing state. Bennett and other critics of that approach believe the Palestinians can never be trusted to govern themselves and leave Israel in peace. Netanyahu has committed in the past to the two-state solution, though in early 2015 he said it was not currently feasible.

Elliott Abrams, a former top national security official in the George W. Bush White House who was nearly appointed deputy secretary of state before Trump vetoed his selection last week, applauded the White House’s language.

“The true goal is peace,” Abrams said. "The positions of Israel and the [Palestinian Liberation Organization] have long been that the best and quickest road to peace is the two-state solution. But that is not the goal; it is a means to an end. If it is impossible, or there are better means, we should be open to them. That's what I think the administration is saying, and they're right.”

A Trump official also said Tuesday night that the president would raise the subject of the peace process with Netanyahu. “He’s hopeful to bring the two sides together to discuss peace,” the official said. Trump has startled longtime peace negotiators by designating Kushner, who has no prior experience in diplomacy or the Middle East, as his point man for that effort. Kushner is expected to attend Wednesday's meeting with the Israeli leader.

The meeting also comes a day before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is set to consider the nomination of Trump’s choice to be ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, a lawyer who has drawn sharp fire from Democrats for past positions that include the belief that Israel could legally annex Palestinian land.

But it’s not the Palestinian question that tops Netanyahu’s agenda.

A higher priority for the Israeli leader is Iran. Netanyahu welcomes the tough line Trump has taken toward Tehran’s missile tests and regional aggression. (Iran is “on notice” about its behavior, Flynn said earlier this month, in his last public remarks before he was fired.)

But Netanyahu is likely to push Trump to go further. In a recent meeting with a senior member of Congress, according to someone familiar with the conversation, Netanyahu said he intended to press the president to revisit the nuclear deal President Barack Obama struck with Tehran in mid-2016, which lifted economic sanctions in return for strict limits on Iran’s nuclear program.

As a candidate, Trump denounced the nuclear deal as “terrible” and threatened to walk away from it. But as president he has not moved to revisit the pact, perhaps aware of the complications of withdrawing from an agreement brokered between Iran and six other nations, all of which still back the deal. During his confirmation hearings, Trump’s defense secretary, Gen. James Mattis, called the deal “an imperfect arms control agreement,” adding that “when America gives her word, we have to live up to it and work with our allies.”

But Netanyahu, who believes the deal allowed Iran to retain too much nuclear capability, seems determined to offer a contrary view.

"The problem how to deal with this agreement is something I'll discuss with President-elect Trump," Netanyahu said in remarks to the Saban Forum in Washington in December.

Netanyahu “knows the administration is not going to scrap the nuclear deal per se,” said Dennis Ross, a senior Middle East adviser to several presidents, including Obama. But, Ross added, Netanyahu will explore the possibility of toughening some of its provisions, including the “sunset” of many key limits on Iran’s nuclear program after 10 years, which Netanyahu has said is unacceptably soon.

Former Obama administration officials doubted that Trump and Netanyahu would strike any lasting policy bargains during their meeting — a prospect that looks even less likely now that Trump is searching for a new national security adviser.

That could mean that tomorrow’s visit is mainly about sending positive signals about future diplomacy.

“For both sides, the primary objective of this meeting is to change the political theater of the relationship,” said Michele Flournoy, a former top Obama Pentagon official and co-founder of the Center for a New American Security.

Their goal, Flournoy added, is “to change the vibe, the feeling” from the tensions of the Obama era. Now, she said, “It’s all kumbaya.”