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writing for godot

Are Republicans Duping Their Donors in the Same Way They’re Playing the Anti-Abortion Crowd?

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Written by Todd Telford   
Friday, 15 December 2017 07:18

 

With Marco Rubio voicing his intent to vote against the GOP tax reform bill as it currently stands, one has to examine how his motives for such a move play into his long-term aspirations. At first glance, this may seem to position him as defying the party mainstream, a rebel not willing to go down with a GOP sinking ship.

With Roy Moore’s loss in Alabama, the GOP has seen that even their voter suppression tactics can’t protect a bad candidate in a red state. Where races might be closer, like almost all of the remaining nation, the ability to retain both sides of Congress might be in serious jeopardy. Moreover (sorry), the Moore loss also showed just how willing conservatives might be to use actual thought and not just cultural reflex to choose for whom to vote.

But there’s another possibility. Rubio might not be bucking the mainstream; he might be an early scout to see if the calvary might be able to jump off their horses and stroll to their stated goal. That has been the GOP’s method for stringing along the anti-abortion zealots, inching for decades towards that Shangri-La of striking down Roe v. Wade. The end-game hasn’t been to actually change the Constitution on this; it’s been to milk evangelicals of their support and cash every time they need it. It’s been a Lucy and the football dynamic at every election cycle.

The Moore defeat puts another spin on this. The tax reform (#BlueBloodWelfare) bill is a no-win for the GOP at the moment. If the bill is dead and buried, then the GOP has proven ineffectual with promises unfulfilled. Pass the bill now, and the likely effects realized by next summer will doom the party and thus give billionaires no reason to fund GOP campaigns likely to flounder.

Besides, at that point they will have gotten most of what they could’ve ever wanted anyway. Inheritance tax will go away. The effective tax rate for the wealthy that actually work for their dough will be cut from 39.6% to 21% because new laws will enable them to incorporate as individuals and claim the corporate tax rate. And all that money stashed overseas to avoid paying taxes can be repatriated with no penalty, most likely at that 21% tax rate.

Apart from the unfinished frenzy of deregulation, there isn’t much more a billionaire could ask for. Other than wet kisses for all that the GOP has done over the last couple of decades for them, the overprivileged will have lost all incentive for backing the GOP as they face a pummeling in the 2018 elections.

Kicking the can down the road, as they’ve done for years with the national budget, may be the only strategy for Republicans to keep dark money in play through next summer and beyond. Rubio may be trying to allow the GOP to present the specter of a well fought defeat that can keep billionaires like the Koch brothers, the Mercers, and Sheldon Adelson just out of reach of their gilded carrot.

But these major players invented the playbook on all this. They know lizard-brain manipulation inside and out. Will Senate Majority Leader McConnell and Speaker Ryan be able to con their mentors? There will be no second chance. Public opinion is shifting fast and disgruntled conservatives abound. 2018 may be a Republican Waterloo regardless.

That’s why Agit Pai tried to take away our net neutrality this week. But the courts may derail this assault on our last bastion of freely spread truth. Even a squirming Congress may be forced to overturn this or face the certainty of being voted into oblivion.

The GOP may be painting itself into its final corner on the #GOPTaxScamBill. Apparent defiance may pay of for Rubio, even if he was secretly part of the establishment’s plan. If they crumble, he may rise from the ashes anyway with this one objection large on his resume.

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