Written by Dale Becknell   

Perhaps we cannot raise the winds. But each of us can put up the sail,
so that when the wind comes we can catch it.
- E. F. Schumacher

Pundits are still getting it wrong. Most still think that Bernie Sanders can't win. California will probably send all campaigns to the conventions. Hillary Clinton may decide whether Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, or Bernie Sanders will be the president in 2016, and whether she will be in 2024. Survival of the Republican Party, and the future of the Democratic Party, Chelsea's generation, precious Black lives, and our Planet are at stake.

Experts were stunned to see someone as repugnant as Trump torch arguably qualified and electable professionals to surge ahead. In hindsight it's almost logical. His style is so distinct that he immediately galvanized a rowdy segment of angry white people feeling marginalized in the economy and society. He spoke to them, and for them. Meanwhile, the normal majority of conservatives were divided for weeks by a wide field of normal-sounding candidates. By the time that field had narrowed to two or three, Trump's solid, though minority, constituency had given him a headstart to a big lead. However, non-Trump candidates still have more delegates, who will hash things out at what may well be the most raucous GOP convention since Lincoln's day. Epic! The Velociraptors vs. Trumposaurus!

Many GOP leaders now worry less about the presidential race than the survival of their party, and should. Hope of broadening their waning demographics of affluent or prejudiced whites, and reactionary Cuban-Americans, has been torpedoed by Trump insulting Blacks, Latinos, Muslims, women, heads-of-state, and even businessmen less rich than he claims to be - virtually everybody other than bigoted wing-nuts, who'd back him if he grows horns and a red tail. To preserve a deeply fractured party, even Republicans who despise Trump are pledging support if he wins. They should withdraw it! It's like pledging to help the Ebola virus spread in your house! If Trump wins the nomination, the GOP will lie shattered in some kind of Humpty Trumpty saga. GOP leaders should join in prayer with the rest of the world, including most conservatives, horrified at the prospect of Trump as president. Delusional! Divisive! Not a team player!

Yet, he could win! Pundits haven't been so wrong since Ronald Reagan was considered unqualified to be governor, let alone president – an unelectable media figure prone to oversimplification, and outlandish statements. He beat well established incumbent governor, Pat Brown, using hateful rhetoric against those darned trouble-makers speaking out for peace, and equality for minorities and women. He backed brutal police violence, including the killing of a by-stander with live ammunition, as citizens tore-down-his-fence (twice) around a volunteer park. Even after having declared his readiness for a bloodbath, Reagan later became president by blaming people who cheat to milk the system. No, not Savings and Loan bankers who ransacked the economy fraudulently under deregulation mania (see any parallels to later bank deregulation?), but poor people, whom he dog-whistled to bigots to mean Blacks. Sound familiar? Enter: The Donald, stage far right.

Reagan shut down the economy in Berkeley by having National Guard troops with fixed bayonets surround the downtown, and arrest protesters along with terrorized everyday citizens - en masse! Imagine The Donald ordering federal troops to do it in every city! He would find tough generals less suppliant than corporate underlings in taking orders from a possible draft-dodger, who may have insulted their families. If il Donald summarily fires officers who have dedicated their lives to defending America, if they question an order to declare war on Americans, who are supposed to have rights under the Constitution, division will grow within the military, as it did within the rank-and-file in the 60s and 70s. Extremely dangerous if outright war breaks out between neofascist and minority militants! Terrifying enough, but equally so to have a military distracted and divided in today's world. For centuries wars have been started from macho blustering and insults between heads-of-state with inflated egos. Today's surrogate wars between regional powers could very easily spiral out of control from escalating incidents, gripping the world in fear not felt since Armageddon was averted during the Cuban Missile Crisis only when Kennedy and Khrushchev resisted their generals pushing for a first strike, and engaged in sensitive diplomacy.

At their convention GOP leaders should move, as Speaker Ryan may have hinted, to disqualify Trump for party membership due to racist, sexist, anti-Muslim positions in violation of their by-laws, party planks, and the Constitution. Even if it fails, it will signal intent to welcome new constituents, even if Trump wins. The GOP should stake out a core of decency to survive Hurricane Donald. The Donald's ego is so bloated that after a first ballot, he may tell the entire Republican establishment: “You're fired!” Even if he runs as an independent, assuring a Ted Cruz loss (for which many Christians would thank God) they should celebrate expulsion of a human wrecking ball. Let Trump flare out like independents George Wallace and Ross Perot did. If he leads a Tea Party exodus, the GOP can re-establish it's role in civil and functional governance. Even if Trump wins the GOP nomination they should shun him to fail miserably, and join conservatives writ large to tell The Donald: “You're fired!”

For Democrats, most analysts still see Hillary Clinton as the presumptive nominee. Really? To find a successful campaign by an insurgent populist, historians would have to recall way back to the day Barack Obama entered the race, and even a faithful Michelle Obama prayed to God to give him a chance. He then stunned every analyst alive as a groundswell swept him into office. How? With a campaign for change. He's still the sitting president, for cryin out loud, and pundits are still dismissing the groundswell for Bernie Sanders, electrified by...yep, his campaign for change.

Bernie hasn't hung around just from his strength in New England. Nor has he faded, as predicted, after winning big in mostly white Midwestern states. Even despite heavy media bias, he's closing in on Clinton. As usual, most reporters reduced their roles early on from journalists, who are supposed to present balanced coverage of positions that will actually affect us and our Planet, to mere horse race announcers. Even worse, they handicap the race, and dismissed Bernie for weeks as a non-factor, in effect blacking him out, as was literally the case with former presidential candidate Rep. Cynthia McKinney, a woman and a Black. This irresponsibly influences voters to back someone dubbed a probable winner, who might otherwise give a chance to someone offering different solutions. Even when the media didn't listen, people did, and responded “'uge!” as Bernie likes to say. Democrats would be foolish to ignore the energy that propelled Obama past Clinton and into the White House, and Trump past establishment rivals.

Most people know that the system is corrupt and unworkable – economically, politically, and, to the astute, ecologically. Some still lean toward Clinton because they think she could get things done within the power structure - but what kind of things? The best the Clintons have done has been to back disastrous policies hyped by Republicans:
* NAFTA, the corporate measure sending good jobs to Mexico, exploiting workers there with poverty wages, and undercutting unions and wages here.
* Initially supporting TPP, a similar corporate proposal to send yet more jobs to Asia to exploit sweatshop conditions that many Asian-Americans fled.
* Cutting the social safety net, hurting the poorest, least employable people.
* Long term prison sentencing, even for non-violent offenders, diverting money from schools and recruiting teachers, to building prisons and hiring guards.
* Bank deregulation leading to rampant greed and fraud that crashed the economy.
* Using public funds to protect Wall Streeters, who caused the crash, and GM executives, from taking a loss, hypocritically accepted by "free market" advocates.

These policies have hit ethnic minorities and poor families hard, throwing many into homelessness or poverty; and, working people at large have felt real wages and benefits remain flat for decades, or decrease. Young and middle-aged people who managed to get training or a good education face huge debts, and underemployment from a lack of jobs paying livable wages and benefits. Many who worked hard to save and invest have been decimated. Traditional conservatives and liberals, who should be the natural base of two important parties, have seen billionaires manipulate markets, and the politics of both parties, to become obscenely wealthy, while hurting practically everybody else. People are fed up with corrupt business-as-usual politics and politicians, and are not turning out to vote for them. Bernie Sanders has consistently opposed policies benefitting only the one percent, and fought for equitable alternatives. With the Clintons still connected to Wall Street, Hillary would continue Obama's mistake of allowing big banks to continue gambling with our economy, and stay in charge of the Treasury. Bernie favors regulation to protect the public and the economy.

Like Obama, Clinton also would continue the Bush family wars over obsolete energy sources, which incited formation of al-Qaeda under the Bushes, and formation of ISIL under the Obama/Clinton Administration, destabilizing the region, and threatening to destabilize the world. Clinton is as hawkish as ever, scarcely distinguishable from Republicans in her taste for imperial war. Bernie opposes the wars. People want security at home, and our soldiers safe, not permanent war that is making the world less secure. They want money spent on quality education for all kids, and skilled jobs for efficient, clean water and renewable energy systems, not developing even deadlier weapons. They want Wall Street crooks arrested, not immigrants with no papers or path to citizenship, breaking families apart, stepped up by Obama, to whom Clinton likes to associate herself to gain support from Blacks, even though a half million Blacks without papers are also vulnerable. Latinos in New York unhappy with Big Bank subjugation of Puerto Rico, and Central American immigrants in California unhappy with Clinton's backing of a right-wing coup in Honduras, will not vote for her. Sanders has steadfastly opposed the US undermining of Latin American democracy by the backing of murderous right-wing regimes cozy with US multi-national corporations. He will continue to gain support among Black, Latino, and Asian Americans, and working people at large, who have lost ground in practically every socioeconomic measure from the mistakes of the Clinton, and Obama/Clinton administrations.

But Clinton has too big of a lead, and is considered most electable, right? Look at the numbers. Through April 5, Clinton had 1,300 committed delegates, and needed another 1,087 to clinch the nomination. Sanders trailed by only 220. Clinton's only stronghold has been the South, which, except for Kentucky, is played out, and Sanders is gaining on her in every other region, including states with significant blue-collar and Black populations. He won Wisconsin, and virtually tied in Illinois and Missouri. It matters to Black activists that, although he's from Vermont, Bernie has participated in the Civil Rights Movement since being arrested in the 1960s. NAFTA and TPP would also gut protections against environmental assault by enabling corporations to sue anybody who stops them, impacting communities like Flint, Michigan, whose drinking water is toxic, or entire states, like Oklahoma, where heavy fracking by energy companies is causing rashes of earthquakes. He carried both states. People don't trust Clinton to fight corporate greed.

Bernie is poised to hold his own or make gains in blue-collar-and-delegate-rich states like New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and New Jersey. D.C. is a wildcard, but he will probably sweep Puerto Rico. That leaves mostly two regions over a long two months: New England and the West – both dominated by Sanders. His grassroots campaign has won 6 of the last 7 states, all in the West, winning 5 with 'uge vote totals of over 70 or 80 percent! Bottom line: Clinton won't clinch the nomination without a strong showing in California. It's the elephant in the room, with 371 delegates to be pledged, and 546 total at stake, and maybe the most diverse population anywhere. Bernie will win there – but the question is by how much?

Bernie's call for free higher education will appeal to everybody trying to get a leg up out of poverty, or keep from siding into it. Communities and small businesses hurt by big-box, minimum-wage corporate monopolies would also trust Bernie more. How about women? Except for the older, and more affluent, women in general are backing Bernie – a reminder that they did not propel Clinton ahead of Obama. And young voters, the new energy of the party? Sanders, big time. College towns everywhere? Ditto. Environmentalists trying to stop fossil-fool corporations from incinerating our Planet? The peace movement? Everybody fed up with extreme and growing economic and political inequality? You get the picture.

So, it may well be up to 712 superdelegates to select a Democratic nominee at their convention. For the sake of democracy perhaps it should be - to resolve a dilemma. Superdelegates are insiders who'd love to see one of their own, Hillary, win the presidency. She's smart, dedicated, can raise money, and has paid her dues. The trouble is she's a very weak candidate – even weaker than in her last bid, with the added Benghazi, cell phone, and Clinton Foundation controversies. Clinton would stand a chance against potential GOP candidates (and vice versa), except for Trump. She's a tough, skilled debater, but no match for Trump, who has gotten under the skin, and shredded lawyers as skilled as she. He will attack every weakness in her record, keeping her on the defensive. He will insult her and her husband, making her look weak if she doesn't respond forcefully, and strident if she does, while Bill goes ballistic. That will take her, all of her Democratic allies, and the media away from her talking points. Trump probably holds records for the least money raised in a modern successful campaign, and the least spent, and yet his media campaign has eclipsed all others by far. He transforms would-be journalists into tabloid paparazzi, who eat up everything he feeds them. Every news organization broadcasting over TV, radio, and the internet now serves as his publicity team, and their sponsors pay for it! This arrangement keeps opponents off camera, except to get their views on Trump's cracks about how stupid and ugly they are. He'll con gullible voters into thinking that China made America pitiful by conning Secretary Clinton, but he'll cut deals to make foreigners pay to make America great. Clinton wouldn't carry a single red state, but, like fellow salesman Reagan, Trump's unifier pitch could give him enough swing states to win! WARNING! EXTREME DANGER FOR EVERYONE!

A completely different story with Bernie. He's a kid from New York like Trump, and doesn't get rattled. He cannot be thrown off of his positions, because he has articulated them for his entire adult life, except for necessarily reconsidering his stance on Israel. Trump would be seen as a maniacal bully when trying to insult this white-haired gentleman. Sanders will shame him for offending decent people. Fewer GOP leaders and Cruz voters would have the stomach to back Trump and would withdrawn support. Bernie can't be red-baited, because his proposal to tax billionaires is consistent with historical norms, and common among mainstream politicians. Nothing to do with government taking away what hard working middle-class people have earned, nor government running the economy; and, Bernie has long backed civil liberties, especially for the downtrodden. Even if Trump instead wears his gentler face, and speaks in platitudes about unifying us, if moderators hold him to answering questions, he is unprepared to counter Sanders' critiques intelligently, and would make off-the-cuff statements, so ridiculous that Bernie would smirk in amusement, flustering Trump and causing him to flip-flop. It would be obvious how unqualified Trump is, whereas Bernie would be recognized as a man of integrity and compassion, offering cogent alternatives to a hit-and-miss patchwork of inconsistent, failed policies, and programs rendered ineffective by corporate influence.

The Sanders campaign would turn out the same constituents that Obama did in his lopsided victories, including Blacks who do not want Trump, and win pretty much the same states. How much of a nightmare are superdelegates willing to risk? In 2008, they picked Obama because they figured his turnout would swamp any Republican. They were right, and should pick Bernie for the same reason.

Even if Hillary is assured of victory if Trump goes independent before their convention, Bernie should be the Democratic candidate. It would rejuvenate a party being abandoned from ineffectiveness, by continuing the influx of new energy inspired by Obama. More importantly, it would point toward a new path for improving the human condition, the raison d'etre for the party, and for activists getting into politics in the first place. FDR told people that he couldn't implement initiatives unless they backed him, and they did – including those among the super-rich who knew from horrifying history that something had to give. Bernie has asked people to back his campaign, and they are. However, this scenario may be Hillary's call. What seems like a no-brainer should really be perhaps the toughest among the many very tough decisions that she's made.

To not receive the nomination again would be painful for Hillary, but nothing like suffering the humiliation in a loss to Trump or Cruz, which should be everybody's first concern, especially hers. However, she has an opportunity to transcend her disappointment, and play a pivotal role in a transformation so urgently needed for humanity and our Planet at this tipping point in our history, but not as president - yet. You think The Donald steals headlines? Child's play compared to say, “Japanese Prime Minister Commits Hari Kari!” It would take soul searching, getting humble, and sincerely admitting mistakes by her and the party – all of them. If she were to inadvertently hurt Chelsea, neither she nor Bill would try to defend it, because she would just apologize for causing her any pain. Our precious Black family has been enduring so much pain. If she were to resign as a candidate and join Bernie and the progressive movement wholeheartedly, it would explode! Especially if it's clear that she could win nomination. What if she were to ask all superdelegates to back Bernie; and, after the first ballot move that every single delegate back Bernie? EPIC! And, what if she were to withdraw her name from consideration for Vice President, and nominate (or back? – whatever the rules are) a progressive approved by Bernie, like Liz Warren, or even Van Jones, or Alicia Garza, or Juan Gonzalez, or Cornel West (who already draw big crowds) - not only for their leadership, but life insurance for Bernie. HEROIC! Hillary's leadership is greatly needed in education, or health - until 2024. Then, by her and Bill liberating themselves from corporate sponsorship, which worked for Jerry Brown and Bernie, she'd likely be elected President by margins not seen since FDR's day. Wouldn't that be the most fitting occasion to celebrate the first woman president, and for Bill to play sax?

Cynics assume that Hillary is just an ambitious politician, at best deluded about change within a rigged system, if not just plain corrupt. Despite cynics contributing to bleakness thru their resignation to it, every generation proves them wrong. What's there to lose by resignation? Everything. Gandhi and Reverend King believed that we're doomed to insanity unless we appeal to everyone's highest moral values; and, they proved that it is the only path to change with a minimum price paid in human casualties from oppressive forces presumed unchangeable. Everything in history changes, including empires. Slave-trader John Newton humbled himself to become a clergyman who penned “Amazing Grace,” and helped abolish slavery. Don't underestimate anybody - voters, superdelegates, or Hillary.

Either way, change that Obama supporters yearned for will breathe new life if super-delegates, the Clintons, Obamas, Carters, and other leaders support the movement for a Green New Deal, led by Bernie and inspiring grassroots activists in social and environmental justice groups. It must also be coordinated globally by leading the way out of an imperial war death-spiral, by basing foreign relations on respect, mutual aid, and friendship, rather than fear, vilification, and endless blood feuds. This would offer hope to talented young people, and renew their faith in elder generations.

Donald Trump may, ironically, have done everybody a favor. He has advanced us to a fork in the road of what people know is an insufferably corrupt, unfair, and unworkable system. He has illuminated, in stark clarity, business-as-usual on steroids - a path to oblivion. Barack Obama told us that our hope lies in change. We haven't quite found that path, but his message rang true. Bernie Sanders has invited us to embark on a new path, in which limitless greed is not a right - not on our finite and fragile Planet, shared by all, and not at the cost of dignity and a decent life for millions of people.

We have come to a moment when we are like a nervous young bird who knows that it must overcome it's fear of departure from what is familiar to it. It knows that to live, it must live fully - by taking flight! We have come to a moment when we must leap!