Written by Tom Herman   

The Myth of Bernie Sanders’ “Unelectabilty”

I want to tell you the real cause of Bernie Sanders’ “unelectability.” It is not that he is a democratic socialist, or that he is 74, nor that he is Jewish, or that he is too progressive or that he has not yet captured the minority vote. Any of these things may be challenges to one degree or another; but they are not in themselves insuperable barriers to his election. The biggest struggle Sanders faces is that many Democrats have turned away from him because they mistakenly believe that he could not win a national election. There is no credible evidence that this is true, and many signs that it is false. Conversely, there is scant evidence that Hillary is a surer bet in a national election, and much that says she is not.

A large part of the naysaying comes from the mainstream media. Bernie is an anti-establishment candidate, and the corporate media are, by definition, establishment. What do you expect them to say about Bernie? They have ignored him, belittled him; and even when they—occasionally—praise him, they often end by saying “but of course he can’t win.”

Many Democrats, fearing loss of the White House, fall in line and repeat, mindlessly, “I like Bernie—but he can’t win.” Naturally Democrats don’t want to lose the White House. The future of the Supreme Court alone is enough to make us want to insure that a Democrat wins. But the conventional wisdom may be dead wrong, about both Sanders and Clinton. Let us compare the two candidates in terms of their electability.

Of the two candidates the popular energy is clearly behind Bernie. His supporters love him. Hillary’s supporters are generally not passionate. People come in droves to attend Bernie’s speaking events. Hillary’s are generally not that well attended. The fact is that many of Hillary’s followers are settling for her. They merely think she has a better chance than Sanders and are afraid to support the candidate they really prefer.

Many Democrats fear that while they admire Bernie, his ideas would be too radical for the general population. To refute that idea you need only look at the polling data. Hillary is way ahead of Bernie among Democrats. But nationally he is doing at least as well as Hillary in head to head polls against Republicans. In fact, in some cases he is doing better. Recently a national poll came out: Hillary vs. Carson: Carson +1; Sanders vs. Carson: Carson +2. But also this: Hillary vs. Trump: Clinton +5; Sanders vs. Trump: Sanders +9. Sanders’ superior margin against Trump has occurred in several head to head matches. Here is Sanders, still little known and even unknown by a fairly large percentage of the population, doing extremely well against the top—and best known—Republican hopeful. Clinton, who is extremely well-known, is doing at best about the same.

Next consider the net favorability ratings. “Net favorability” compares the number of people who approve of a candidate to the number who disapprove. Here we are talking about all voters, not just Democrats. According to RealClearPolitics.com, Sanders has a net favorability of +2.3. That may sound modest, but consider that every other candidate currently running—excepting Ben Carson—has a negative rating. Hillary’s rating is minus 10. How do you elect a president with a minus 10 approval rating? Sanders’ approval rating is more than 12 points higher than Clinton’s. Disregard this at your peril!

One more factor. Net favorability ratings only apply to people who are familiar with a candidate. If the candidate is unknown to them they will not express either a positive or negative opinion. The vast majority of people already know Clinton. Far fewer know Bernie. But given his popularity and his esteem among people who do know him, the number of people who support him nationally can only be expected to grow. Clinton, already known and not highly approved of, has little room for growth.

The Democrats fear the general voting public. But it is themselves they should fear. The polls are telling us that Bernie could win against Trump now. Just think how much better he will do in several months time! It is one thing if you think that Bernie’s policies are wrong. If you don’t believe the ultra-rich and the corporations should be taxed higher, that we should have universal healthcare, that we should have a massive jobs program and a $15/hour minimum wage, then clearly you are not for Bernie. But if you believe that he is right and you still do not support him, then that is just cynical. It is saying that change is impossible in this country. And it is also ignorant—because it ignores the facts that Bernie is indeed electable and exactly what so many people have been hoping for for so very long. Change is being offered to us in the person of Bernie Sanders and we will either rise to the occasion or subvert it out of our own misplaced fear. Wouldn’t it be a terrible thing if we were to settle for Hillary Clinton only to find that we lost anyway?