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writing for godot

Flu Shot Effectiveness

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Written by ron humphries   
Saturday, 10 January 2015 09:39

This article to first mention is not intended to serve as any personal medical advice. It is to introduce a discussion on the effectiveness of the vaccine and reasonable courses of action in light of that. But does not serve as any medical advice. One must consult with ones doctor for specific medical advice as this in that regard does not suffice…

Now on to point…the thing does, like as not, not work. Here is a CDC report on the effectiveness in the 2012-2013 years.

Vaccine Effectiveness for 2012-2013
How well is the vaccine working this season?

CDC conducts studies each year to estimate how well the flu vaccine protects against having to go to the doctor because of flu illness. This season CDC is publishing information about how well the flu vaccine is working in the United States at three different times during the season: the beginning, middle, and end of the flu season. (Note: For the 2013-14 flu season CDC plans to publish a middle and end of season estimate, but not a beginning of season estimate. An early season estimate was done this season as a result of the high levels of early season flu activity). CDC’s estimates of the benefits of flu vaccine (also known as vaccine effectiveness or “VE” for short) are based on information CDC collects as the flu season progresses. Throughout the flu season, CDC collects data to determine how well the flu vaccine works in different age groups, and how well it works against the specific flu viruses that are spreading and causing illness. CDC’s estimates of vaccine effectiveness can change over time as more information is collected. CDC's publishes estimates of vaccine effectiveness to help inform prevention and treatment decisions made by doctors and other health care practitioners during the flu season.

What are CDC’s current estimates of flu vaccine effectiveness this season?

CDC’s mid-season VE estimates were published on February 21, 2013, in a Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report entitled: “Interim Adjusted Estimates of Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness—United Sates, February 2013”. Overall, the VE estimate for protecting against having to go to the doctor because of flu illness was 56% for all age groups (95% confidence interval: 47% to 63%). (For background information on understanding VE estimates and confidence intervals, see Vaccine Effectiveness – How Well Does the Flu Vaccine Work? and go to the questions: “How does CDC present data on vaccine effectiveness” and “Why are confidence intervals important for understanding vaccine effectiveness?”) This VE estimate means that getting a flu vaccine this season reduced the vaccinated population’s risk of having to go to the doctor because of the flu by more than half. However, VE can vary across age groups and across different flu viruses, so CDC further analyzed the VE estimates to adjust for these factors. When broken down by different age groups, the VE against flu A and B viruses ranged from 27% in people 65 and older to 64% in children (aged 6 months to 17 years old).

When looking at flu virus specific VE, effectiveness against flu A (H3N2) virus – which was the main virus spreading this season – was estimated to be 47% (95% CI: 35% to 58%), while effectiveness against flu B was 67% (95% CI: 51% to 78%) for all ages. (Note: There were not enough flu A (H1N1) viruses detected at the beginning of the flu season to make an early estimate of how well the flu vaccine was specifically working against those viruses.)

These results indicate that vaccination with the 2012-2013 flu season vaccine reduced the risk of flu-associated medical visits from flu A (H3N2) viruses by one half and from flu B viruses by two-thirds for most of the population. Overall, VE estimates suggest that the 2012-2013 flu vaccine has moderate effectiveness for most people against the flu viruses spreading in the United States, similar to previously published reports. The one exception to this was the VE among people 65 and older against flu A (H3N2) viruses, which was lower. The single point estimate for VE in this age group was 9% (95% CI: -84% to 55%). s (Osterholm et al., 2011), from randomized controlled trials and observational studies. In addition, the estimates also are consistent with mid-season flu VE estimates for preventing flu treated by a physician in Canada and the United Kingdom published in the journal Eurosurveillance on January 31, 2013."..end quote CDC.

Synopsis:
Basically in the general population it was about 60% effective, and in the older age group above 65…9% effective. The CDC lacks in communication ability. Thier information contexted in the scientific and medical, daunts most journalists, so they look beyond the substance and go to the CDC's conclusions generally.
Bottom line is it often the vaccine…does not work.


All these effective or not effecfive vaccine claims, mean….. that they did not go to a doc or did for treatment if and when they did catch it even though vaccinated.

Discussion:
The problems with this are multiple.
First most think it works, when it does not.
SEcond when one is exposed and contracting of the flu, there is a significant chance one is symptomatic, but the symptoms are allayed or remediated a bit.. so the specific of the flu is mild, and does not require a doctors treatment..

The problem with that specific is this…while only mildly symptomatic one is capeable with any symptoms of spreading the flu.
They get a mild form, go to work, school, having been vaccinated, think it but a cold or other mild illness, and spread it..to those perhaps who are not vaccinated at all. It though mild to this one person spread, it becomes fully symptomatic in another not vaccinated. Or even if vaccinated but with a inadequate immunce response which was 91% over the age of 65 in 2012, the form they contract is fully symptomatic.

Result::
The rastional thing in that senario described, a mild form as a result of a partial immune response…it in a other than self consideration…is to not get the flu shot.

If one has the flu, one will know firmly one has it, and stay home from work or school.
With the flu shot, mildly symptomatic, a partial immune response, one will not. It will be spread more by those with the shot, and a partial immune response... than if they fully contracted it. As those fully contracting it know firmly, rapidly…they have it.

Secondarily
There now exists treatment of antiviral agents against the flu. They must however be adminstrated within 2 days of the onset of symptoms, or they will not work. Those getting the flu, but having the shot... will like as not, not get the antiviral(usually tamiflu or equilivent). They will quite often think themselves protected, and then it is not considered to be the flu, and then tamiflu, is not necessary.
So on a individual matter those with the flu but also the flu shot, are more inclined not to get antiviral. When they do become fully symptomatic, it is often after the 2 day period, and tamiflu is then found to not work.

Opinion:
So overall my opinion is for the general health... until they come up with effective vaccines…it is best overall to not get the shot.

There it is estimated a medical scientific ability, the phama industry, with the expenditure of approximately 1 billion dollars or so, for research and testing to produce a effective vaccine. The wall street journal may be found to have explored that issue, and come at that conclusion. Likely that will be a once or twice in a lifetime shot, not every year, for every suspected new strain.
The virus mutates even within basic group fairly rapidly, which is why generally the vaccines stop working. And they occasionally miss the basic group entirely, though that is rare nowadays.

I being conspiracy minded in many ways, I think the reality of aisles and aisles of medicines available over the counter, are the why of never seeing that expenditure and cure, but that is only personal conjecture. We will not see a cure or effective vaccine in this current pharma environment, regardless of cause.

This year as per effectiveness…. it is a particular bad year, as the vaccines likely are worse in lacking effectiveness, than even 2012. A average year overall the shot is about 60% effective. Which means again not that one did not get the flu, but that it was not bad enough to see a doc. A 9% for those of over age 65..really getting the shot was meaningless. A outcome of death once admitted for flu to the hospital, some studies suggest that negative outcome to be 25% roughly.

It is probably the most by cause death of one medical kind. It is subsequent to other things... such as old age, asthma, COPD, and many others..but it is often the precipitating factor in the actual death. So cause will be listed as all the rest, but the actuality was the flu was the event precipitating the actual death.

Vaccine information:
On ther vaccine itself... it simply does not produce autism, nothing points to that. The nasal variety functions with a virus that has been acclimated to a condition of living that is at a temperature below that found in humans. So that is why we do not get sick from nasal administration(usually recommended for kids). The shot is essentially a replicant of the virus…meaning it is impossible to get the flu form it.
Why do many say…I got the flu when I got the shot..from the shot……

Doctors offices are often visited by flu carriers, those who are overtly symptomatic and then spreading the flu. It is highly contagious. So likely one got the flu from exposure to the others with sneeze cough or touch, which facilitates the exchange of bodily fluids.

There is some body of evidence that suggest those who get the shot are more inclined to get the flu in some later years. But to my opinion, the science and book on that, is still out. Studies point to that, but it is not a proven, as the studies are not sufficient in quantity and type to make that determination.

The CDC
We saw with the ebola crisis not all that long ago... the CDC is basically a faulted organization. No offense to those who work there, they are professionals in the field of epidemonly, disease prevention, and all the rest, it is just that the structure, the bureaucracy, does not favor a good end product. The ebola response was so faulted, it was taken out of their hands and put in the charge of a civilian, without medical expetise as qualification.

They every year, say the same thing, over and over... get the shot. Local and national news media will pick up on the CDC as source and run with theiir advice as a almost automatic thing before flu season. The same suggestion to get the shot however was first presented and still exists not in relationship to tamiflu and like products. It is now able to be treated.
And never concurrent with the shot is the information that the shot will often 40% of the time not work. So wants the CDC us the public to get the shot…they will simply use any thing to get us to do so. So they hide that it is not effective.

However in a democratic environment, this serves to stop the public, from demanding a better product. Wd could demand this of the industry…but largly we don't know it does not work. So they do us the public a disservice. And most think it works when firmly it often does not.

Personal view:
So I personally, will not ever get a shot again. I will take tamiflu in any flu season when symptoms do present. In fact the CDC for the first time ever has advised those who are initially symptomatic, to get the antivirals, as so deficient is the vaccine this year.

Media:
The flue shot takes 2 weeks to be effective. Locally flu here is widespread. I heard local new media advise again yesterday, all to get the shot regardless of the CDC recommendations on antiviral, and the fact it takes 2 weeks to become effective. Largly media is not current on the specifics of this thing, and do not do their homework. To advise peoples to go to places where flu may very well be present, a docs office clinic or pharmacy, in the height of flu seaosn, is to my opinion..just irresponsible.
The chances of getting exposed are pretty high, and the chances the vacciine will not help to protect this year, are extremely high.. Completely irresponsible.
The CDC with their complusion to see to it we all get the shot are misrepresenting the issue. The media are largly not doing their homework, not being critical as reporters have to be…and simply acting as a agent of information for the CDC. They are failing in their responsibility to inform and protect the public.

I don't adhere to any of the various conspiracy theories stated on the vaccine, other than the for profit not general good nature of the current big pharma world. Which to my opinion is not conspiracy but fact. They will not produce a good vaccine as so much is made in treating it.

Dsiclaimer:
This is personal information again,and personal view, and does not serve as medical advice. Please consult with your doctor on any of this and on any medical decision making to include a flu shot. Certainly this is not RSN's view nor statement.

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