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Excerpt: "The fundamentals of the world economy aren't, in themselves, all that scary; it's the almost universal abdication of responsibility that fills me, and many other economists, with a growing sense of dread."

Portrait, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, 06/15/09. (photo: Fred R. Conrad/NYT)
Portrait, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, 06/15/09. (photo: Fred R. Conrad/NYT)


The Great Abdication

By Paul Krugman, The New York Times

25 June 12

 

mong economists who know their history, the mere mention of certain years evokes shivers. For example, three years ago Christina Romer, then the head of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, warned politicians not to re-enact 1937 - the year F.D.R. shifted, far too soon, from fiscal stimulus to austerity, plunging the recovering economy back into recession. Unfortunately, this advice was ignored.

But now I'm hearing more and more about an even more fateful year. Suddenly normally calm economists are talking about 1931, the year everything fell apart.

It started with a banking crisis in a small European country (Austria). Austria tried to step in with a bank rescue - but the spiraling cost of the rescue put the government's own solvency in doubt. Austria's troubles shouldn't have been big enough to have large effects on the world economy, but in practice they created a panic that spread around the world. Sound familiar?

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+38 # BradFromSalem 2012-06-25 07:14
When facing conflicting causes of irrational behavior, always choose the simplest explanation. This is derived from Occam's Razor, a 14th Century philosopher/scientist.

In this case, since the actions being taken by the banks are irrational, it would be foolish to assign logical steps to resolve the problem. Instead, the actions all are directed toward blame. The banks are all implying that since Spain has messed up, it is Spain's responsibility to fix it. The bank's have ignored any role they themselves may have had in Spain's problems. They ignore the huge profits they made while Spanish property values expanded. The simplest explanation is that nobody in a position to fix the problem will do so, because in their mind, that means it would be their fault. That means they would then be expected to clean up after every future bubble bursts, especially if they made a lot of money from it. And that would simply eat into their profits, which is all this is about. Avoiding blame and retaining profits.
 
 
+8 # John Locke 2012-06-25 09:20
LiberalLibertar ian: Sadly though I do agree that the economy will crash in 2013, this is looking more and more like 1931, and even 1929....and even 1789 France.

The crash is primed and ready and the Government is only making it more likely to happen. Obama is completely lost and has NO idea what to do, or how to even do anything! He is like a deer caught in the headlights, he is paralyzed! While Geither and the other economic fools steady the course!

The US Government is doing everything backwards, instead of stimulating the economy by taxing those that stole our money e.g. the Banks...and those who can afford it,e.g. the top 1% and the large multinational corporations... they are continuing to take from those who can least afford to be taxed in any manner or form. e.g. SS, Medicare, Medicade, Unimployment Insurance benefits and food stamps!

They continue to prop up Wall Street so that Wall Street will continue to pay their tribute to out public employees who seek public office...One of the biggest disgraces is Jamie "Demon" who the Government is subdizing with 14B a year as has just been discussed here. Obama's buddy in chief!
 
 
+10 # BradFromSalem 2012-06-25 09:58
The problem is we have created a culture where the first priority is to find someone to blame, then solve the problem. Similar to the concept of not giving anyone with an STD any medicine util we find out who gave it to them. By the time you figure it out and find the person the patient is dead. And if the transmitter is an otherwise important individual, then lots of others die so as to not embarrass the vip.
So, in my example, Wall Street has VD and they are f'ing all of us. Since they are so smart (see Mr. Dimon) and so important (too big to fail) we can all just die.

Watch "Low Spark of High Heeled Boys" tonight at 25 O'Clock!
 
 
+19 # JSRaleigh 2012-06-25 10:32
Quoting LiberalLibertarian:
The banks are all implying that since Spain has messed up, it is Spain's responsibility to fix it. The bank's have ignored any role they themselves may have had in Spain's problems.


Spain didn't mess up. The banksters messed up Spain.
 
 
+7 # BradFromSalem 2012-06-25 13:08
Read what you copied from my entry.


"The bank's have ignored any role they themselves may have had in Spain's problems."
 
 
-7 # dick 2012-06-25 08:26
"I want the benefits of Euro & global inter-connected ness, but not the responsibilitie s. Waah." The #1 job of world leaders for the last 35 years was to EDUCATE the public on the new realities of a drastically changing world. Obama was almost uniquely equipped to do this, here & world wide. Instead he chose to try to prove to voters that he was NOT different, that his ideas for the future were JUST LIKE John Boner's, but a tiny bit smarter. Oops.
 
 
-58 # Robt Eagle 2012-06-25 08:43
Read Krugman's article and like always, no substance, just his take on the obvious and as far left leaning as possible. OK, Paul the great philosopher, from your article we should all retain our firearms and get rid of any gun controll measures because it will be every man/family for themselves. Krugman, come up with a solution!!! You are the great economist...wha t should Obama do? Please tell him and put him straight because he does nothing. It sure seems Obama WANTS the world to go into a depression because his policies and inaction has/have done everything to send us there.
 
 
+42 # Todd Williams 2012-06-25 09:08
How many times has Krugman have to hit you over the head with his solutions before you get it? Read every article Paul has posted in the last year or so and maybe, just maybe, you'll understand what he's saying. But I am sure you really no interest in Paul's take on the issue. You are just trolling as usual, Eagle.
 
 
+21 # JSRaleigh 2012-06-25 10:30
Quoting Todd Williams:
How many times has Krugman have to hit you over the head with his solutions before you get it? Read every article Paul has posted in the last year or so and maybe, just maybe, you'll understand what he's saying. But I am sure you really no interest in Paul's take on the issue. You are just trolling as usual, Eagle.


He's never going to get it.

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it"
- Upton Sinclair
 
 
-48 # jimattrell 2012-06-25 08:49
Major world givernments have been creating dependency and perks for all (in the name of social programs) and that chicken is coming home to roost. It's not the banks that are at fault... It's the entire system which says "vote for me I'll give back to you but then you need to vote for me again AND then contribute some of what i get for you to my re-election campaign". Obama has this down to an art form...
 
 
+26 # Todd Williams 2012-06-25 09:11
Oh no, it's never the banks' fault. Never. Banks are pristine and above such machinations. Yes, it's gotta be the fault of all those poor people and other social tit suckers. And of course, Obama is the biggest culprit here. GIVE ME A FREAKING BREAK!!!!!!!!
 
 
+20 # BradFromSalem 2012-06-25 09:30
A common ploy, no make that a universal ploy of the right, is to use misdirection. That is what your posting is, "don't look at the hundreds of billions that unnamed 1% types are directing to Romney, see, look over there Obama is taking millions from unnamed 1% types." Or as we used to say in the playground when someone called you a name; "I know you are, but what am I"

We are not children anymore, and the stakes are way too high; Obama is not the worst offender of the votes for sale politics; and Romney and all other Republicans are nothing but votes for sale candidates.
 
 
+1 # reiverpacific 2012-06-25 09:43
Quoting jimattrell:
Major world givernments have been creating dependency and perks for all (in the name of social programs) and that chicken is coming home to roost. It's not the banks that are at fault... It's the entire system which says "vote for me I'll give back to you but then you need to vote for me again AND then contribute some of what i get for you to my re-election campaign". Obama has this down to an art form...

Not to nit-pick or anything but your mis-spelling re "givernments" is amusingly appropriate, as in "Give'er all to the rich and screw the rest", what?! Heh-heh! I'm not laughing at you B.T.W., as I'm particularly digitally challenged in typing, just the analogy which had an ironic appeal.
To my simple mind, most economic theorems are like a strange and obscure foreign lingo, so when I read something that evokes the thinking of Mr Krugman and other "normally calm economists" (and well-paid at that), I figure I'm not going to get it anyway but it's all goin' to come out in support of whatever sleights of hand are being pulled out of the economist's hats in benefitting the uber-capitalist s at any given time, whilst reducing the rest of us to a manipulable demographic bloc of different colors on a pie-chart or a set of figures with no meaning at the grass roots.
 
 
+4 # mdhome 2012-06-25 20:08
I notice it is the extreme rightwingnuts/T publicans that get the biggest donations, so Obama must be a first year art student compared the Michelangelo republicants.
 
 
+29 # PNWGuy 2012-06-25 09:41
@Robt Eagle: I'm not the fan of Obama that I used to be, but I do think it's unfair to say that he has done nothing to get us out of this situation. This session of Congress has been entirely unprecedented in the history of the country in number of filibusters by the Senate. They have thwarted every attempt the Democrats have made to move us on. For instance, Pelosi passed a Bill to take away tax breaks for moving jobs overseas and replace them with tax breaks for bringing jobs back home--filibuste red by the Republicans in the Senate. That makes no sense at all, unless they are doing what McConnell admitted in public Republicans want: a one-term Obama Presidency. Even if they have to drive the country into the ground to do it. I've heard that Republicans are not interested in governing for the good of the country, they are only interested in obtaining power. When they behave in such a non-sensical, self-interested manner, it's hard not to believe that's true. They don't care about we, the common people. Enough with the abortion legislation and other red meat issues, please let's get on with some bi-partisan co-operation to solve our very real economic and electoral (another whole subject) issues.
 
 
+12 # GREG L 2012-06-25 09:56
Funny how no one really calls it like it is on this crisis. Ultimately, the political left and the right present a set of solutions within a narrowly defined box that doesn't get at the problem---one says austerity while the other says spend. The real solution lies in going after those who created the problem. What's wrong with the banksters just taking losses? In other words, let's have no money printing and no shifting of losses to the public--let them take a haircut.

This crisis has been created and is really a power play. Those who are behind it fully intend to bring order out of the chaos they created. That will be obvious soon enough to all.
 
 
+5 # mdhome 2012-06-25 20:11
The right has a solution? All I see from them is a push toward a depression, when they aren't tied up with some law about a vagina.
 
 
+5 # Pickwicky 2012-06-25 10:24
The question that jumps off the page, Professor Krugman, is: why are those abdicating responsibility so willing to tempt the coming conflagration? Won't they go down with the rest of us? Or are they protected from a worldwide depression? It's hard to imagine they are. Can they be ignorant of their part in preventing the coming economic catastrophe? If the answer you gave in this article is true, that is, self-interest, self-protection , 'I'm gonna keep mine'--then won't that stance result in self-destructio n?
 
 
-2 # barbaratodish 2012-06-25 10:28
A solution to the economic crisis:let's just have competitive chaos! Everyone just attempt to do IMPROV COMEDY- the crazier the better! Then let's have an IMPROV COMEDY OLYMPICS COMPETITION. Then let's call the most insane comedic improvisers corporations and then let's all buy stock in them, because these insane comedic improvisers are the visionary prophets of the world! BTW I do improv, or perhaps improv does me! lol
 
 
+4 # panhead49 2012-06-25 10:44
Quoting barbaratodish:
A solution to the economic crisis:let's just have competitive chaos! Everyone just attempt to do IMPROV COMEDY- the crazier the better! Then let's have an IMPROV COMEDY OLYMPICS COMPETITION. Then let's call the most insane comedic improvisers corporations and then let's all buy stock in them, because these insane comedic improvisers are the visionary prophets of the world! BTW I do improv, or perhaps improv does me! lol


Actually I think the solution is one that will create many howls but it is this simple - birth control. We've gone gangbusters over the machination of almost all our task. We've created much easier ways to do things but failed to factor in what to do with the idle hands. Just look what idle hands come up with when they reside in WashDC and only have one task - unseating the current prez. If we can't create more jobs then the least we could do is create less needers of jobs. Oh shoot, that's right - that would require women's rights regarding contraception to actually belong to a woman. Never mind.
 
 
+11 # CoyoteMan50 2012-06-25 10:32
That's why I keep calling Romney and the Republicans "Herbert Hoover and the Republicans".
Those who ignore history are condemned to relieve it.
 
 
+2 # mdhome 2012-06-25 20:15
Maybe Herbert RoMoney Hoover?
 
 
-12 # brucbaker 2012-06-25 10:56
ECONOMIST .. ONE of the few careers on the PLANET that someone can be wrong nearly ALL THE TIME and still keep their job.

Or ... 99% of the economists can be wrong but if JUST one percent is right .. they point that they got it right by that ONE PERCENT! Any more stupid articles about economists predictions... and even KRUGMAN should lose his job!
 
 
-10 # Shorey13 2012-06-25 12:06
Krugman is not the only so-called expert who has no viable solution -- they all just keep repeating the same messages, none of which have any chance of being enacted.

The real conflict here is between those who espouse laissez faire economics (minimal interference with the workings of the unregulated marketplace) and those who are old enough to remember when government actually intervened on behalf of the weak and powerless (before Reagan/Thatcher).

My solution is to let Romney and the Republicans sweep the next election and then run us over a cliff, hopefully convincing American voters to reject their idiotic ideas once and for all. Clearly, only a major crisis will get the attention of those who only want to keep going to work, noses down, accumulating material indulgences, until the planet itself dies from our poisons.

I have a quote from Wendell Phillips on my desk: "Only by unintermitted agitation can a people be kept sufficiently awake to principle not to let liberty be smothered in material prosperity.
 
 
-16 # Robt Eagle 2012-06-25 13:13
Shorey, what in the world will you do if Romney gets in, the Senate and the House become Republican controlled...th ey fix this insane problem by stopping giving away the freebies to all those who are sucking off of the rest of us and the economy recovers! Will you admit that the giving away everything for nothing doesn't work...or will you still believe that everyone deserves everything for nothing?
 
 
+13 # Pickwicky 2012-06-25 16:12
Gee, Robt Eagle--you mean they'll solve all our problems like they did between 2000 and 2008?
 
 
+7 # BradFromSalem 2012-06-25 17:18
RobtEagle,

I will admit I am wrong if your projection comes true.

Will you admit being wrong if the Republicans take over and we have another Great Depression compounded by a Recession?

How about if Obama wins, the Senate gets a filibuster proof Democratic majority and the House flips back and the economy soars? Will you admit being wrong?
 
 
+2 # reiverpacific 2012-06-25 18:08
Quoting LiberalLibertarian:
RobtEagle,

I will admit I am wrong if your projection comes true.

Will you admit being wrong if the Republicans take over and we have another Great Depression compounded by a Recession?

How about if Obama wins, the Senate gets a filibuster proof Democratic majority and the House flips back and the economy soars? Will you admit being wrong?

I'd buy a ticket to THAT admission -but don't hold yet breath.
 
 
0 # BradFromSalem 2012-06-26 05:15
His response was so eloquent yet succinct.

Honestly, my biggest fear with Mitt is how deep in debt he has gone to the Extreme Right. He personally is far from the worst Republican, he is just not very good as a political executive. He actually does know the Righties are nuts but I don't think he has a clue how to walk the tightrope required of a President, because as a CEO of a private corporation he just would find ways to shuffle the deck and make sure of only one thing; he got the aces.
As Governor, he attempted the same thing and found his options limited, and the results were poor, but not devastating. Also, he was only in political debt to Bush II. As President, there is no room to shuffle and the political debt suffocating.
 
 
+4 # mdhome 2012-06-25 20:19
The republican (no) plan is never wrong, the problem can always be blamed on the black guy. Funny, have you noticed the price of gas going down? Obama must be doing somthing right, just a couple months ago the high gas price was Obamas fault.
 
 
0 # BradFromSalem 2012-06-26 05:18
I saw Obama at my local gas station actually changing the price sign! At least I thought it was him. It was a Black guy so it probably was. It couldn't have been Eric Holder, he's going to jail.
 
 
+7 # fredboy 2012-06-25 12:30
The Fed is now simply a Republican political torpedo. Fed leaders care nothing about the American people.
 
 
+11 # angelfish 2012-06-25 13:55
The ENTIRE crew that's running the ReTHUGlican Party today are totally without Morals, Scruples or Humanity. In fact, these concepts are as foreign to them as imagining a Heaven without THEM in it! In a word, they are CLUELESS! They have NO ability to see themselves with ANY clarity and are oblivious to the devastation they are wreaking on the 99% who are struggling BECAUSE of their machinations to ensure a Democratic failure in November! The alternative explanation is much more chilling and that is, they are just EVIL sons of Bit*hes who don't give a sh*t about anyone or anything but THEMSELVES!
 
 
+2 # cordleycoit 2012-06-25 15:31
The danger in Krugman is that he does have an answer that would work for another half century and then we would be back to another contraction in capitalism. If we ditch the so-called free market now we will no doubt be seeing rocky times ahead but not the wild gluttony we saw when any idiot with a minor in banking could throw money around and create the predictable break down that we just incurred. Time to put away the bayonets that enforce the so called free market mysticism. Hand and faith in greed etc all could go without even a ripple.
 
 
+3 # Rick Levy 2012-06-25 18:28
To paraphrase a Philippine adage, the hardest person to awaken is someone who pretends to be asleep.

The governments that sit on their hands when they can be doing something to solve the problems that they allowed to be created in the first place will say it wasn't their fault when the next crash happens.
 
 
+2 # X Dane 2012-06-25 23:25
Rick Levy
That must be congress you are talking about for they REFUSE to move on the measures Obama ask them to. Any idiot can see, that to get people working on all the infrastructure needs is the thing to do It is a win, win strategy .... even if you borrow to get it started.

To get many people working will be a
shot in the arm for the economy. We should All DEMAND THAT CONGRESS ACT NOW!
 

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