As GOP Revolts, Dems Pounce on Akin

By Bill Lambrecht, St. Louis Post-Dispatch

21 August 12

Ignoring calls from prominent Republicans to withdraw from the race, Akin remains defiant, telling talk-radio host Mike Huckabee: 'We are going to continue with this race for the US Senate.' -- SMG/RSN

ince the day after the 2010 elections, Republicans have trumpeted that Sen. Claire McCaskill is the Democratic incumbent most likely to fall in November.

Republicans also like to say that Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., is vulnerable. And sometimes they point to Virginia, Nebraska and North Dakota, where Democratic senators are retiring, as states they can pick up.

But all along, Missouri has been a constant target in the drive by the national GOP and independent strategists marshaling high-dollar contributions to gain the four seats needed to take control of the Senate.

U.S. Rep. Todd Akin never was the favorite of the Republican establishment, and now his words about rape have clearly upset their planning for the Senate contests.

There was no clearer sign of Akin's diminished standing in his party than the remarkable warning from the National Republican Senatorial Committee that the national GOP will sit out Missouri's 2012 Senate election if Akin holds fast to his assertion that he will remain a candidate.

"If he does decide to move forward, the NRSC will not be investing in Missouri," a committee official said, relaying the warning made Monday to Akin in a phone call from Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, the committee chairman.

Akin even saw his support eroding from stalwart conservatives like talk show host Sean Hannity. Two years ago, Hannity was among those who stuck by Christine O'Donnell, a Tea Party favorite and the GOP Senate candidate in Delaware, who famously asserted: "I am not a witch."

Many Republicans believe that in 2010, gaffe-prone conservatives in several states cost them control of the Senate. This time, with high hopes for November and worries about a gender gap, Republicans and their allies are trying to move quickly in the aftermath of Akin's controversy.

One pollster said Akin's candidacy likely was damaged but perhaps not irretrievably.

"This is on the 'macaca' scale that cost George Allen his seat," said Brad Coker, of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

He was referring to a remark in 2006 by Sen. George Allen, R-Va., that was interpreted as a racial slur and quickly eroded a comfortable margin in polls and led to his defeat by Democrat Jim Webb.

Republicans have long been at a disadvantage with female voters. Between 1996 and 2008, Democratic presidential candidates enjoyed an average 8.5 percentage-point advantage in support from women, according to exit polling.

This year, Democrats have worked to further exploit the gender gap, pressing a campaign offensive contending that Republicans are waging a "war on women" with, for example, proposed budget cuts and opposition to Affordable Care Act dictates on contraception. Such assertions infuriate Republicans.

Akin drew support from the Susan B. Anthony List, an anti-abortion advocacy group whose president, Marjorie Dannenfelser, asserted that the Wildwood Republican was a pro-life leader who had misspoken.

But abortion rights organizations and other Democratic-aligned groups seized Monday on Akin's comments, sending out fundraising solicitations contending that it bolsters their narrative about Republicans and women.

"This is just another example of how far the Republican Party is willing to go to the extreme right," the 21st Century Democrats, a left-leaning group, said in a fundraising letter.

Coker said that if Akin stays in the race, he must work to repair his reputation with women. He noted that of the three GOP candidates in the August primary, only Akin trailed McCaskill among women in a Post-Dispatch/News 4 poll last month by Mason-Dixon.

"There's enough time left for him to recover. But he would have to defend what he said for the rest of the campaign," Coker said.

Nicholas Chad Long, of St. Edward's University in Austin, Texas, has studied controversies and gaffes in Senate races dating to 1974. In an interview, he said that such controversies had on average cost Senate incumbents a 5 percent drop in support.

Long said the damaging effect is typically magnified if the statement is made by a challenger, such as Akin, as opposed to a sitting senator.

"This may have been the first impression people were getting of this gentleman," Long said, "and it doesn't look good."